Mexico vs. Ecuador Prediction: Must-Win Game for Mexico to Reach the Knockout Stage

Written by: Angelo Zarra
Published June 29, 2024
5 min read

Sunday evening Group B in Copa America will conclude with Mexico and Ecuador clashing at State Farm Stadium in Glendale Arizona. Both sides entering this crucial matchup are level on three points both suffering defeats by an astonishing Venezuela team. Ecuador does possess the marginal edge with a better goal differential meaning they only need a draw to advance to the knockout stage while it’s a must-win game for Mexico.

Mexico are coming off one of the most shocking results in the tournament for all the wrong reasons. El Tri squandered their chance to sit atop Group B with their 1-0 setback against Venezuela. Mexico had glorious opportunities in the late stages of the match including being awarded a penalty kick in the 85th minute. Regrettably for Mexico, Orbelin Pineda’s bottom left attempted shot was stopped.

Meanwhile, Ecuador stamped their first win in the 2024 Copa America overpowering Jamaica with a 3-1 score line. La Tri was fortunate to obtain the early lead thanks to an own goal conceded by Jamaica in the 13th minute. A stoppage-time penalty in the first half was awarded to Ecuador and 17-year-old Kendry Paez converted on his opportunity scoring his first career international goal. Winger Alan Minda scored deep into stoppage time which would ensure La Tri would walk away with all three points.

Here, we will break down the betting odds and share our favorite picks for Mexico vs. Ecuador.

Mexico vs Ecuador Copa America 2024 Prediction

Mexico vs. Ecuador Betting Odds for Sunday, June 30

The books are aware of the importance of this match and with the current forms both teams are in, its no surprise each side are similarly priced on the moneyline. In the draw no bet market it’s the same tale as both Mexico and Ecuador are listed at -120.

Mexico vs. Ecuador Odds

The following odds are taken from bet365 Sportsbook. Head over to bet365 to place your bets and claim a bonus: $1,000 Safety Net Bet OR $150 in Bonus Bets.

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Mexico vs. Ecuador Betting Prediction

Mexico Preview 

Pegged by the books to be El Tri’s top scorer for the Copa America tournament, Santiago Gimenez has yet to make an impact for his country. The striker has participated in 127 minutes of action in the Copa America and has only logged three shots towards the target. The Feyenoord striker has now gone nine straight appearances without hitting the back of the net for Mexico.

On the backend, El Tri is getting the job done only surrendering one goal through their two group stage contests. Helping the backline out is the stout defensive form from Johan Vasquez. The Genoa defender in Serie A has won 75 percent of his ground duels while successfully defending the air winning 69 percent of his aerial duels. Vasquez has also done his part in alleviating pressure totalling 10 clearances in 180 minutes of action.

See our Prediction and Best Bets for Mexico at Copa America, here.

Bet on Mexico at bet365 

Ecuador Preview

The teenage sensation repertoire for La Tri's is catching more attention with each passing minute Kendry Paez plays. The 17-year-old has bagged one goal on eight shots in 167 minutes played. Páez became the second youngest goalscorer in the history of Copa America with his goal from the penalty spot. Averaging four shots per game the young starlet will be tasked with breaking through the Mexican defence and leading Ecuador to the next stage.

Last summer's blockbuster transfer to Chelsea, Moises Caicedo is a key contributor on the pitch for his nation. His characteristics lean more to the defensive side of the pitch. Caicedo is lively going forward and able to be the box-to-box midfielder La Tri depends on to dictate the match on the pitch. In Ecuador’s victory over Jamaica, the 22-year-old finished with two shots toward the target and created three chances in his full 90-minute shift.

Bet on Ecuador at bet365 

Mexico vs. Ecuador - My Pick

All the pressure is on Mexico to win on Sunday in a do-or-die scenario. El Tri certainly have the home-field advantage in the stands when they play but taking on a quality side like Ecuador might not be enough to get them over the finish line. Mexico have had threatening moments in their two previous fixtures but failed to profit from it. Ecuador just need to play for the draw to advance, they won’t be taking any risks going forward like Mexico will be doing. This should be a tight cagey encounter but ultimately the better-looking side in this clash should not suffer a defeat to Mexico from what we have seen after two match days in Group B.

Bet on Ecuador Draw No Bet (-120) at bet365 

How to Watch Mexico vs. Ecuador

  • When: Sunday, June 30, 8 p.m ET

  • Where: State Farm Stadium

  • TV: Fox Sports, TUDN


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Angelo Zarra

Soccer Betting Analyst

Liga MX
Betting Picks
Hailing from the great white north in Canada, over the last 15 years, Angelo has been wagering on sports and, more specifically, the sport that’s in his blood, soccer. Well-versed in soccer leagues across the globe, keeping tabs on what’s happening in the world of soccer. Since 2022, Angelo has published MLS betting previews on various websites, including on Major League Soccer's official betting page for a short while. Through the power of social media, Angelo has been invited to talk soccer betting on national TV & radio on Sports Grid. In Angelo’s free time, he can be found walking his dog and lounging at home watching any game that's on while enjoying his second favourite thing after sports: food! 
Nationality: Canadian
Education: Accounting and Payroll
Favourite Sportsbook: bet365 Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: PowerPlay Casino
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