Poland vs Sweden World Cup Prediction, Odds, Picks

Written by: Greg Lea
Updated October 14, 2022
5 min read
  • Poland were due to play Russia in the semi-finals but were given a bye
  • Sweden needed extra time to edge out Czech Republic last time out
  • The odds available on an away win make that a tempting choice on Tuesday

Poland vs Sweden Odds

Poland Vs Sweden 2022 03 29

Poland vs Sweden Pick

Back Sweden to win (-190)

We have this down as an evenly matched contest, but the discrepancy in the odds available makes it worthwhile to back an away win.

If you want to learn more about betting the moneyline, our guide contains everything you need to know.

Poland vs Sweden Predictions

Sweden Edged Out Czech Republic and Now Must Go Away

Sweden’s semi-final against the Czech Republic last week almost went the distance, but Robin Quaison’s goal in the 20th minute of extra time avoided the need for a penalty shoot-out.

It was a tight game and both sides had their chances, but a Sweden victory felt like a fair outcome on the balance of play. It was they who fashioned the better opportunities on the night, and Quaison’s goal came after some fine link-up play with Alexander Isak.

Sweden is now just one game away from qualifying for the 2022 World Cup. They were careless at times in the group stage of the qualification process, although it did not matter in the end. Sweden was sitting pretty at the summit of the standings after three rounds of fixtures, with a 2-1 win against Spain in Solna the undoubted highlight – especially as they had to come from behind to beat one of the best national teams in world soccer.

Sweden went on to lose to Greece and Georgia, before succumbing to Spain in Seville. Even so, their second-place finish was pretty comfortable, with Janne Anderson’s side amassing 15 points to Greece’s nine.

Andersson, who has been at the helm since 2016, guided Sweden to the quarter-finals of the World Cup four years ago. That represented the country’s best showing since their third-place finish in 1994, and Sweden again reached the knockout phase of a major competition at Euro 2020 last summer. However, defeat by Ukraine in the round of 16 was disappointing.

Sweden had done well to top Group E ahead of Spain, Slovakia, and Poland. They beat their upcoming opponents on matchday three of the tournament, as Viktor Claesson’s goal deep into second-half stoppage time brought his team a 3-2 win.

Sweden fans will hope for a similar outcome in Chorzow on Tuesday.

Poland Want Another Chance After Tournament Disappointment

Poland was due to face Russia in the play-off semi-finals, but the latter was expelled from the qualification process following the invasion of Ukraine.

Even before UEFA had made a decision, prominent Poland players – together with their counterparts from the Czech Republic and Sweden – declared they were not prepared to take to the field against Russia. In the end, Poland was given a bye to the final, which will take place on their soil this week.

Poland advanced to the playoffs after finishing second in their qualification group. They never really looked like beating England to the top spot, despite holding the Euro 2020 runners-up to a 1-1 draw in September. Poland lost their final match at home to Hungary, but they still finished two points clear of Albania in second and three ahead of the Hungarians.

If Poland makes it to Qatar, they will have qualified for back-to-back World Cups after missing out on South Africa 2010 and Brazil 2014.

However, recent tournament performances have been disappointing: Poland was eliminated in the group stages of the 2018 World Cup and Euro 2020, despite being tipped as potential dark horses going into both events.

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There Is Unlikely To Be Much Between the Sides on Tuesday

The main reason why the odds for this match are in Poland’s favor is home advantage.

Of the four play-off semi-finals that took place last week, only one away team emerged triumphant: North Macedonia, with their astonishing 1-0 success over Italy. Playing on familiar territory in front of your fans is exactly how any team in the world would want to contest a match of this magnitude.

However, the difference in prices between two evenly matched sides looks excessive – which is why there is value in backing Sweden to triumph on Tuesday. Andersson’s side is steely and has a knack for grinding out results when they need them.

Sweden does not concede many chances and poses a threat on the counter-attack and from set-pieces, two avenues to the goal they will look to make the most of here.

Poland, of course, has Robert Lewandowski on their side. The Bayern Munich striker is one of the best players in the world and he has the capability to win any game on his own.

However, even a brace against Sweden at Euro 2020 was not enough for Poland to avoid defeat. Lewandowski is fantastic, but his national team has not been able to get the best out of him at times in recent years.

Last year’s encounter between these teams produced a five-goal thriller, but this is likely to be a much cagier affair. From a betting perspective, the best choice is a Sweden victory.

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How to Watch Poland vs Sweden

Poland vs Sweden Information
Teams Poland vs Sweden
Location Stadion Slaski, Chorzow, Poland
Time Tuesday 29 March 2022, 02.45 PM EDT
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Greg Lea

Soccer Betting Analyst

Expertise:
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Champions League
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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.
Nationality: American
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