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USA vs El Salvador: USMNT Only Need a Draw

Written by: Greg Lea
Published March 27, 2023
11 min read
  • The USA will qualify for the CONCACAF Nations League Finals with a draw or a win

  • El Salvador must emerge triumphant in Orlando to qualify for the Finals tournament

  • The USA are in pole position but they should not take anything for granted on Monday

USA vs El Salvador Odds

The odds for USA vs El Salvador are provided by the DraftKings sportsbook, where a deposit bonus worth up to $1000 is available right now.

Match Result and Total Goals


USA and Over 3.5



Draw and Over 3.5



El Salvador and Over 3.5



USA vs El Salvador Pick

The home team only need a draw but we should expect them to go all-out for victory on Monday.

Back the USA to beat El Salvador and over 3.5 goals in total. (+125)

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USA vs El Salvador Prediction

USMNT Thrash Grenada to Leave Them on Brink of Qualification

The United States were always likely to beat Grenada on Friday, but the manner of the victory was important. A slender 1-0 win and an unconvincing performance would have been received badly back home, not least because of the various off-field events surrounding the national team at present.

To recap, the USA are currently under the interim management of Anthony Hudson. Gregg Berhalter’s contract expired at the end of 2022 and was not renewed amid allegations of domestic abuse dating back 30 years. An investigation concluded that the episode in question did happen but was an isolated incident, but the path back to the job nevertheless looks difficult.

A decision will probably be made before the Gold Cup this summer, with Jesse Marsch, Jim Curtin, and Patrick Vieira among those linked with the position. For now, Hudson remains at the helm for the conclusion of the group phase of the 2022/23 CONCACAF Nations League.

A 7-1 thrashing of Grenada last time out means the USMNT are in pole position to finish top of Group D in League A. They currently hold a two-point lead over El Salvador, who must beat Hudson’s side on Monday to overtake them at the summit of the standings.

Both teams have already booked their spots at the Gold Cup by finishing in the top two, and they are now set to battle it out for a place at the Nations League Finals. That event will be held in June and will also feature a combination of Mexico/Jamaica, Panama/Costa Rica, and Honduras/Canada.

The USA is the reigning champion, having won the inaugural edition of the competition in 2020/21. They did so thanks to a thrilling 3-2 victory over Mexico in the final, with Christian Pulisic notching the winner in extra time.

El Salvador Almost Beat the USA in the Reverse Fixture in June

Before they can dream of a repeat triumph, the USA must ensure they do not lose to El Salvador. They are deservedly strong favorites with the best online sportsbooks, but the USMNT would be advised to take nothing for granted.

Indeed, they almost fell to a 1-0 defeat in the reverse fixture last June, when the visitors to San Salvador required a last-gasp equalizer from Jordan Morris to secure a 1-1 draw. 

El Salvador are not exactly a giant within the CONCACAF region, but they are not a minnow either. They were involved in the octagonal for World Cup 2022 qualification, and although they ultimately finished seventh out of eight, they held the USA to a 0-0 draw at home and only lost 1-0 to Berhalter’s team on the road.

This will be a special occasion for El Salvador manager Hugo Perez, who represented the USA 73 times during his playing days. He has been in charge of the country of his birth since 2021, having previously managed El Salvador’s Under-23 side.

Perez has selected a pretty young squad for this match, which follows a 1-0 loss to Honduras in a friendly last week. That was a disappointing outcome for El Salvador, whose position in the FIFA Rankings (74th) places them below Iraq, Cape Verde, and DR Congo.

USA Should Get the Job Done as Long as They Remain Focused

The USA will not have been surprised that their trip to El Salvador last summer was tricky. The Estadio Cuscatlan is a tough place to go for visiting teams, but Perez’s side have continually struggled on the road throughout his tenure. They managed just one away win in the Octagonal and could only draw 2-2 with Grenada in St George’s in the Nations League.

El Salvador often struggle to impose themselves at opposition stadiums, particularly when they are playing stronger sides. That could be the case again on Monday. Although a draw would not be enough for them to finish top, we will probably see a cautious approach from Perez’s team.

El Salvador are likely to sit deep in a compact defensive shape, with an emphasis on keeping the USMNT’s attack quiet. They hope to create one or two chances on the counter-attack or from set-pieces.

Everything will have to go perfectly for El Salvador to pull off a victory. More likely is that the USA will overwhelm the visitors, especially if they play with the same intensity they demonstrated in the demolition of Grenada last time out.

All things considered, it is hard to look past another comfortable triumph for the USA. From a betting point of view, a home win and over 3.5 goals looks to be the best option.

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How to Watch USA vs El Salvador

  • Teams: USA vs El Salvador

  • Location: Exploria Stadium, Orlando, USA.

  • Date and Time: Mar. 27, 2023, 7.30 p.m. ET 

  • How to Watch: TNT, Universo, Peacock Premium

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Greg Lea

789 Articles

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]

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