USMNT vs. Mexico Prediction: Gold Cup Trophy Up for Grabs

• The USMNT beat Guatemala 2-1 in the semi-finals to qualify for Sunday’s showpiece

• Mexico are targeting a 10th Gold Cup title as they face their old rivals this weekend

• Can Mauricio Pochettino get his hands on a trophy, or will Mexico triumph in this one?

USMNT vs. Mexico Odds

The odds for USMNT vs Mexico can be found in the odds table below, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Join FanDuel today and claim your welcome offer: Bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets if your bet wins. For more info, check our FanDuel Sportsbook review.

USMNT vs. Mexico Pick

Back Mexico to win. It is never advisable to bet with your heart, and the head points towards a defeat for the USMNT in the Concacaf Gold Cup final.

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Doom and Gloom Has Lifted but Can USMNT Take Final Step?

The USMNT headed into the Gold Cup with optimism in short supply. They had just lost four games in a row for the first time since 2007, including both of their matches in the CONCACAF Nations League in March. Defeats by Turkey and Switzerland in warm-up friendlies only raised the anxiety a year out from the World Cup, most of which will be played in the USA.

Thankfully, Mauricio Pochettino’s men have managed to lift the doom and gloom over the last few weeks. The USMNT won all three games in Group D to finish top ahead of Saudi Arabia, Haiti and Trinidad & Tobago. They then edged out Costa Rica on penalties following a 2-2 draw in the quarters, before beating Guatemala 2-1 earlier this week to reach the showpiece.

Pochettino has a second-string USMNT roster to work with at this tournament, with many of the regular starters given some time off in between the European seasons. The current squad is made up mostly of MLS players, so Pochettino is not working with the very best the country has to offer.

It has been interesting to listen to the Argentinian head coach over the last few weeks. Pochettino has spoken of the need for qualities like grit, determination and resolve on the pitch. Off it, he wants to strengthen the bond between the fans and the team. He made that point again after the victory over Guatemala, referencing the fervent support the opposition received.

"I saw a player of Guatemala crying," Pochettino said. "That is the way that we need to feel. And our fans need to feel the same. It's not to come here to enjoy all the spectacle, and if you lose, nothing happens. Things happen.

"In Argentina, it's not the same if we lose. The consequences are massive."[In some countries] you play [to] survive. You play for food. You play for pride. You play for many things. It's not to go and enjoy, and go home, and laugh, and that's it.”

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Mexico Eye Double Figures and Start the Final as Favorites

Mexico have won the Gold Cup a record nine times and they are seeking to become the first team to reach double figures this weekend. The veteran coach Javier Aguirre was brought back last year and he has already delivered the Nations League trophy. The 66-year-old is now fully focused on adding another piece of silverware to Mexico’s collection.

El Tri topped their group with seven points out of nine, before beating Saudi Arabia 2-0 in the quarter-finals. A 1-0 defeat of Honduras last time out secured their passage to the final at the NRG Stadium in Houston.

Mexico, lest we forget, are also set to host several matches at next summer’s World Cup. It is a big deal for them as well as for the USMNT. They also view the Gold Cup as part of their preparations for the main event in 2026. It has been a case of so far, so good, but Mexico will not be content unless they finish the job on Sunday.

“Securing the title would give us momentum and show that the work we’ve done hasn’t been meaningless,” Aguirre said. “We’ve been sharp in training, the group is committed, and there’s a strong sense of unity - almost like a family. Everyone takes pride in wearing the national team jersey.”

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Despite Hard Work This Could Be a Tough Night for the USMNT

This will be the eighth time the USMNT face Mexico in a Gold Cup final. The first was in 1993, when Mexico thrashed their neighbours 4-0, and the most recent was in 2021 when the USMNT prevailed after extra time. Overall Mexico lead 5-2 on the head-to-head in Gold Cup finals.

They have the edge this time around too. This is not a full-strength Mexico roster, but the presence in the side of players like Raul Jimenez and Edson Alvarez provides some much-needed experience. 

Mexico are in good shape. They won the CONCACAF Nations League earlier this year when the USMNT finished fourth. They beat Turkey in a warm-up friendly for the Gold Cup, and have won four out of five matches at the tournament itself. The exception was a 0-0 draw with Costa Rica which was enough to send Mexico through to the knockout stage as Group A winners.

Aguirre also possesses much more knowhow at international level than Pochettino. This is the 66-year-old’s third spell in charge of his country, while he has also led Japan at an Asian Cup and Egypt at an Africa Cup of Nations. Aguirre knows his way around tournament soccer.

It is tempting for followers of the USMNT to back their team anyway, but the smart money is on Mexico here. A victory would be massive for the Stars and Stripes a year out from the World Cup, but El Tri deserve to be favorites.

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How to Watch USMNT vs. Mexico

• Teams: USMNT vs Mexico

• Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

• Date and Time: Sunday, July 6 at 7:00 PM ET 

• How to Watch: FOX, TUDN, Univision