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USMNT vs Mexico Odds: Rivals Meet in CONCACAF Nations League Semi-final

Written by: Greg Lea
Published June 13, 2023
11 min read
  • The USA are looking to defend their Nations League crown in the four-team tournament
  • Mexico will be keen to make a statement after a disappointing World Cup performance
  • The winner of this semi-final will be the favorite to take home the trophy this month

USMNT vs Mexico Odds

The odds for USMNT vs Mexico are supplied by the FanDuel Sportsbook where you can get a no-sweat first bet worth $2500.

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USMNT vs Mexico Pick

Thursday’s match could be a close one, but we are backing the Stars and Stripes to come out on top.

USMNT vs Mexico Prediction

USMNT Target Two Pieces of Silverware in the Summer of 2023

It is fair to say eyebrows were raised when CONCACAF announced the launch of the Nations League in 2018. Five years on and the tournament has proved to be a huge success, much like its sister competition in Europe.

The Nations League has something for everyone. The minnows in League C - think Sint Maarten, Saint Lucia, and Puerto Rico - benefit from playing sides of a similar caliber. The mid-ranking teams in League B - Haiti, Nicaragua, Trinidad, and Tobago - strive for promotion to League A, where the region’s heavyweights do battle. 

A total of 12 teams compete in League A. They are divided into groups of three and the winners of those groups have qualified for this month’s Nations League Finals. 

The USMNT were top seeds based on their points total, while Mexico ranked only fourth. That is why these two teams - traditionally the strongest in the confederation - are facing off in the semi-finals.

This could be an excellent summer for the USA. With the Gold Cup to come, there is a chance they could win two trophies in the coming weeks. Both tournaments will be played on home soil, giving the USMNT a distinct advantage.

The Americans took 10 points from a possible 12 in the first round. The only blemish on their record was a 1-1 draw in El Salvador, but they were otherwise comfortable. 

BJ Callaghan is the new man in charge after he replaced Anthony Hudson in the run-up to the Nations League. He is only the interim head coach for now, but that could change if the USA enjoy a successful summer.

Callaghan has selected a strong squad for the upcoming competition, including Tyler Adams, Christian Pulisic, Sergino Dest, and Gio Reyna. Folarin Balogun is also in after he chose to represent the USA over England, a major boost for the American team.

Mexico in Transition After a Disappointing Showing at World Cup

The USA were the top-performing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup, reaching the round of 16 and bowing out after a creditable showing against the Netherlands. For Mexico, they were eliminated before the knockout phase for the first time since 1978 (although they did not participate in 1982 or 1990).

That was a disappointment, not least because their group was not the toughest. Argentina went on to win the tournament, but Poland were no great shakes yet they beat El Tri to second spot. Unsurprisingly, Tata Martino was fired soon after.

Diego Cocca is the new man at the helm. A triumph in either the Nations League or the Gold Cup would boost his standing early on, but Cocca will be afforded time to turn things around even if Mexico end the summer empty-handed. 

The Argentine manager has been tasked with overseeing Mexico’s transition. Their squad at the World Cup in Qatar was aging and it will be up to Cocca to bring fresh blood through the system. 

His club teams, chiefly Atlas in Mexico’s top flight, prided themselves on their organization. He favored a direct style over a slow build-up. It will be interesting to observe the extent to which Cocca has been able to get his ideas across so far.

We are also waiting to see which personnel will become favorites under the new manager. There are very few guaranteed picks for Mexico’s starting XI right now, which is why it will be so interesting to see the team Cocca selects against the USA in this Nations League semi-final.

USMNT Can Get the Better of Their Rivals in This Semi-final

The likeliest outcome on Thursday is a slender victory for either side. The biggest surprise would be a one-sided encounter and demolition job. Indeed, four of the last five meetings between these CONCACAF rivals have either been drawn or won by a one-goal margin.

The USA have the edge according to the best online sportsbooks, and betting the moneyline is our suggested pick on this occasion. 

The American side is more settled than the Mexican one. Granted, Callaghan was appointed to his post later than Cocca was, but the latter has inherited a team in a state of flux as it moves on from one generation of players.

The main question mark over this USA team in the last couple of years has been up front, but Balogun’s decision to commit to the country of his birth could solve that issue. 

The 21-year-old is still young and we do not know at what level he will end up playing in the club game, but 21 goals in Ligue 1 last term is not to be sniffed at.

With their biggest weakness potentially solved, we fancy the USMNT’s chances of qualifying for the CONCACAF Nations League final.

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How to Watch USMNT vs Mexico

  • Teams: USMNT vs Mexico
  • Location: Allegiant Stadium, Nevada, United States
  • Date and Time: Jun. 15, 2023, 10 p.m. ET 
  • How to Watch: Paramount+
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Greg Lea

786 Articles

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]

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