Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Predictions, Odds, Picks

  • Pitchers duel on the way
  • Can slumping Braves keep up with surging Mets
  • X-factors to watch

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Odds

Odds presented by DraftKings Sportsbook

Team Run Spread Money Line Total
Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-200)
O7 (-110)
New York Mets -1.5 (+170)
U7 (-110)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction and Picks

The Mets have yet to lose a series this season while the Braves have won just one in the past two weeks. The Braves have maybe their best pitcher on the mound in Fried, but face a red-hot Mets offense that’s scored five runs or more in six of the past 10 games while the Braves have only done so three times. It’s unlikely this game is high-scoring, but with Fried on the mound, Atlanta should keep this close. We like the Braves to cover the spread and the under.


Braves Cover the Spread

Under 7

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Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets

Trends to Watch (As of 5.1)

  • Braves are 20-8 in their last 28 vs. National League East
  • Braves are 22-8 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning record
  • Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 road games
  • Under is 6-2 in Braves last 8 road games
  • Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Mets are 10-4 in their last 14 home games
  • Mets are 12-5 in their last 17 overall
  • Mets are 7-2 in their last 9 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5
  • Mets are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
  • Under is 5-1-1 in Mets last 7 vs. National League East
  • Under is 3-1-2 in Mets last 6 home games
  • Braves are 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings

Pitchers Duel Coming Up

It’s hard to see a lot of runs being scored in this game. After all, both of these pitchers have absolutely dominated to start the season.

Atlanta ace Max Fried struggled his first two starts, but he’s been nearly unhittable over his last two. In those outings, Fried has given up just one run and six hits in 13 innings with no walks and 12 strikeouts. He picked up wins in both of those games against the Dodgers and Cubs and is now 2-2 on the year with a 3.00 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

Chris Bassitt meanwhile for the Mets has stepped up. Aces Max Scherzer and Jacob DeGrom had to miss Opening Day with injuries, so Bassitt toed the rubber that day and hasn’t missed a beat since.

Bassitt has thrown exactly six innings in all four games, giving up one run fewer in three of those four outings. In each of those three appearances, he gave up three hits or fewer. Altogether, he’s 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and has 26 strikeouts in 24 innings.

Braves and Mets Flip Flopped

Many people picked the Mets to be competitors this year, but few expected this type of start

The Mets (16-7) have the best record in the National League (just 0.5 games behind the Yankees for the best record in baseball) and are winning on both ends of the field. For starters, their offense has been red hot.

Their 108 runs scored are fourth-best in all of baseball and just two runs off the MLB lead. Their pitching and defense has been just as good, giving up only 71 runs so far this year, also fourth-best in the sport.

Put it all together and their +37 run differential is third-best in the league and is why they’re the only team in baseball to win each of their first seven series this season.

It’s been a team effort for New York, who has seven different batters with at least 30 at-bats who have an OBP of .350 or better and none of those people are named Pete Alonso or Starling Marte who are tied for the team lead with 18 RBIs.

On the flipside, the defending world champions Braves were expected to be much better than this. Atlanta (10-13) has the fifth-worst record in the NL and its -14 is also the fifth-worst in the league.

The Braves offense has struggled, with just three batters who have an OBP better than .350, a major reason they’ve lost three of their past four series.

X-factors to Watch

For Atlanta, we’re going to keep an eye on the best player who is still working his way back from injury, Ronald Acuña Jr. The outfield sensation is just 2-for-13 to start this season (both singles) with one walk and six strikeouts. If the Braves are to turn their season around, it will start with him.

On the other side, we’re watching Mark Canha. The left fielder has been hot the past week, going 8-for-21, though only one of those was an extra-base hit. However with base runners at a premium, the guy to watch is someone who gets on base and he leads the team in that regard at .429 this season.

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How to Watch Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Information
Teams Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
Location Citi Field, Queens, New York
Time Monday, May 2, 7:10 p.m. EST
How to watch Bally Sports Southeast, SportsNet New York, MLB.TV

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Tony Garcia

Expert on Baseball

Tony writes about baseball for after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.