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Best MLB Bets Today: Pitching Takes Center Stage on Thursday

Written by: Michael Savio
Published April 11, 2024
11 min read
Best MLB Bets Today 04 11 2024

Today’s slate of MLB games features several great pitching matchups. We have analyzed them thoroughly to come up with the best two bets available. 

Our first bet will come from a matchup to decide a four-game series between the Brewers and Reds. After that, we’ll see if the Orioles can get hot in Fenway against the Red Sox.

Below, we will share our favorite bet for both of these games. We’ll use odds from BetMGM Sportsbook, which gives new bettors a $1,500 First Bet Offer when using promo code WSNMGM.

For more betting opportunities check our list of the best MLB betting sites and curated list of MLB promos and bonuses.

Best MLB Bets Today: Brewers vs. Reds (1:10 PM EST)

Brewers -1.5 (at BetMGM Sportsbook)

The Brewers and Reds will meet this afternoon for the decisive game of their four-game series. Both teams have impressive offenses. The Brewers are currently second in the league in team batting average (.280) and slugging percentage (.454). The Reds' numbers are far below those, but they are in the top ten in the league in terms of runs scored (61). While that has made their matchups this year hard to predict, the Brewers own a significant edge on the mound today.

Milwaukee will have ace Freddy Peralta on the mound this afternoon. The 27-year-old has been fantastic filling in for the departed Corbin Burnes, posting a 3.09 ERA and an impressive 0.60 WHIP. The long-time Brewer will face a familiar foe he has dominated in the past, with the Reds managing a measly .150 batting average against Peralta. In two starts against the Reds in 2023, Steady Freddy went 1-0 and threw a combined 12 scoreless innings. 

The Reds will be turning to Nick Martinez to start today. The former reliever is filling in at the back of the Reds’ rotation, and it hasn’t gone well. He has made two starts, allowing eight runs on 14 hits across ten innings. Those starts came against the Mets and Nationals, neither of which have been impressive. The Brewers lineup has mostly faced Martinez as a reliever, but they own a .310 batting average and a .517 slugging percentage over 29 at-bats. 

Bet on Brewers -1.5 at BetMGM CTA icon

Best MLB Bets Today: Orioles vs. Red Sox (8:10 PM EST)

Orioles ML (at BetMGM Sportsbook)

The Orioles have yet to live up to the lofty expectations set in the offseason, but this is a great team. We have seen how dominant their young lineup could be, but consistency has been a bit of an issue. The Red Sox don’t have the same talent but have had similar results. Boston has managed just one run several times over the last week but also scored 8+ runs twice. With both offenses hard to predict, we are turning to the pitching matchup to make today’s pick.

Baltimore will have Grayson Rodriguez on the bump tonight. The 25-year-old impressed in his rookie campaign last season, going 7-4 with a 4.35 ERA. The budding star has looked even better in 2024. He has made two starts, going 2-0 while throwing for a combined 12 ⅓ innings and allowing just three runs. Rodriguez faced Boston once last season, and he was hit hard. However, he has matured since then while the Red Sox have lost some essential bats.

Garrett Whitlock will get the start for the Red Sox tonight. He’s coming off the worst season of his short career, finishing with a 5-5 record and a 5.15 ERA across 22 games. He bounced between the lineup and bullpen, struggling in both roles. He looked good against the Orioles last season, but both his appearances came out of the bullpen. The Orioles' young lineup is improving in 2024, and they’ll get payback against Whitlock tonight.

Bet on Orioles ML at BetMGM CTA icon


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Michael Savio

485 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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