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Best MLB Bets Today: Profiting From Veteran Pitching Matchups

Written by: Michael Savio
Published April 16, 2024
11 min read
Best MLB Bets Today 04 16 2024

Today, we are locked in on two MLB games featuring matchups between veteran pitchers. First, we’ll share our favorite bet for the Padres vs. Brewers game as Dylan Cease and Wad Miley square off. Then we’ll share our pick for an AL East matchup between the Yankees and Blue Jays as a reinvigorated Carlos Rodon faces Yusei Kikuchi. 

We’ll be using odds from BetMGM Sportsbook for both of our bets today. If you are looking to sign up with BetMGM to bet on these games, be sure to use promo code WSNMGM to get a $1,500 First Bet Offer*.

For more betting opportunities check our list of the best MLB betting sites and curated list of MLB promos and bonuses.

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Best MLB Bets Today: Padres vs. Brewers (7:40 PM EST)

Padres ML (-125 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

While the Brewers have been one of the best teams in the league early in 2024, they will stumble tonight against the Padres. One big reason for that belief is San Diego starter Dylan Cease. The former White Sox ace is coming off a brutal 2023 campaign but has found success after switching leagues in the offseason. He currently is 1-1 with a 2.16 ERA across three starts for the Padres.

Cease faced the Brewers for the first time last season and delivered one of his best starts. He went seven innings, allowing two runs on five hits during one of the worst months the righty has ever had. It's hard to hit Cease when you rarely (or never) see him, as the Brewers showed in 2023. This will mark the second time they have ever seen him, so we don’t expect much improvement tonight.

Milwaukee will also have a veteran on the mound: Wade Miley. The 37-year-old will be making his second start of the season after starting on the IL. He was fantastic for the Brewers last season, going 9-4 with a 3.14 ERA. While his late-career success has been impressive, he has been plagued by injuries, including the one to open the season. He was solid in his debut against the Reds, but he’ll be facing more of a challenge against a Padres team that has hit him well in the past (.263 BA). 

Both offenses are great, but we see the Padres finding more success with Miley on the mound tonight.

Bet on Padres ML at BetMGM CTA icon

Best MLB Bets Today: Yankees vs. Blue Jays (7:07 PM EST)

Blue Jays ML (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

We aren’t really sold on the Blue Jays as a playoff team in 2024, but they will have a significant edge tonight against the Yankees. That is primarily due to Carlos Rodon (1-0, 1.72 ERA) being on the mound for New York. While his ERA is sparkling, it doesn’t tell the true story of his first three starts. His ugly 1.47 WHIP is a better indicator of where the oft-injured 31-year-old is at. 

Rodon had his best start against a terrible Marlins team but struggled against the D-backs and Astros. He allowed a combined three runs on 12 hits and five walks across 9 ⅔ innings. He got lucky not to get tagged with more runs than he did, but that can’t keep up much longer.

Toronto’s offense is a bit of a mess, thanks to slow starts from Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but they’ll have a great chance to break out against Rodon. The Jays also have Justin Turner swinging the bat, just like anyone in the league. The 39-year-old has a .433 batting average and .600 slugging percentage in April and posted multi-hit efforts in three of their previous four games. 

The team has the bats to capitalize on Rodon’s inability to keep runners off the basepaths, leading to a win tonight.

Bet on Blue Jays ML at BetMGM CTA icon

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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

477 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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