Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, April 5

Written by: Max Heering
Published April 5, 2023
5 min read
Best MLB Picks Today

Pirates @ Red Sox

  • Time: 1:35 PM EST

  • Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller (Pirates)  vs Corey Kluber (Red Sox)

  • Moneyline: Pirates (+128) Red Sox (-152)

  • Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-162) Red Sox -1.5 (+134)

  • Total: Over 9 (-105) Under 9 (-115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+134)

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As some may have expected, it’s not been a great start to the season for the Red Sox. Boston is just 2-3 thus far and trying to avoid getting swept at home against the Pirates on Wednesday. But that sense of desperation should help the Red Sox to wake up for Wednesday’s matinee and get a comfortable win.

More importantly, the sluggish Boston lineup should have success against Mitch Keller. The Pirates were 12-19 last year when Keller pitched. The right allowed four runs on six hits over 4.2 innings in his first start of the season, so he may not have much success at Fenway Park. Despite their disappointing record, the Red Sox have hit eight homers in five games, which bodes well for them against Keller. They will also be able to throw a lot of left-handed bats at him, including red-hot Adam Duvall, Rafael Devers, and Alex Verdugo.

On the other side, Boston will send veteran Corey Kluber to the mound on Wednesday. Kluber was terrible in his first start but should be able to bounce back. He’s a veteran facing a young Pittsburgh lineup in a day game that follows a night game. That should give Kluber an advantage over the Pirates, keeping them under wraps early in the game while the Red Sox find some rhythm offensively. Look for that to lead to a lopsided win for the Red Sox, making it safe to pick Boston to win and cover.

Mets @ Brewers

  • Time: 1:40 PM EST

  • Starting Pitchers: David Peterson (Mets) vs Corbin Burnes (Brewers)

  • Moneyline: Mets (+120) Brewers (-142)

  • Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-184) Brewers -1.5 (+152)

  • Total: Over 7.5 (-105) Under 7.5 (-115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)

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Pitching figures to dominate Wednesday’s matinee between the Mets and the Brewers. The oddsmakers know that with the over/under at 7.5 runs. While that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room, with two good pitchers on the mound for a day game, runs figure to be at a premium in this game.

Keep in mind that the Mets have been beyond dreadful since arriving in Milwaukee. They’ve been shut out during the first two games of this series, and facing Corbin Burnes on Wednesday isn’t going to help. Granted, Burnes wasn’t himself in the season opener, allowing four runs over five innings. But that’s not going to become a common occurrence with Burnes, especially against the sluggish Mets. Outside of a couple of exceptions, Burnes has kept most of New York’s heavy hitters under wraps during his career. With the team’s confidence low, facing Burnes is going to make it that much harder for the Mets to get going offensively.

Meanwhile, the Brewers have a chance to hit the over on their own, scoring at least nine runs in three straight games. However, that kind of offensive outburst isn’t going to last forever. On Wednesday, they’ll face lefty David Peterson, who conceded just one run over five innings in his first start of the season. The southpaw should help to neutralize left-handed hitters like Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez, and Jesse Winker. Plus, Milwaukee’s bats will be a little quieter in a day game after a night game. That should help to contribute to a low-scoring game that says under 7.5 total runs.

Orioles @ Rangers

  • Time: 2:05 PM EST

  • Starting Pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez (Orioles) vs Jacob deGrom (Orioles)

  • Moneyline: Orioles (+168) Rangers (-200)

  • Run Line: Orioles +1.5 (-130) Rangers -1.5 (+108)

  • Total: Over 7.5 (-114) Under 7.5 (-106)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Rangers -1.5 (+108)

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Jacob deGrom will get a do-over after his first start in Texas was anything but a success. With the Rangers losing back-to-back games to the Orioles and hoping to avoid a sweep, deGrom will bring his best effort, allowing the Texas lineup to come alive and give the Rangers a comfortable win.

It's worth noting that Adam Frazier is the only position player on Baltimore’s roster who has ever faced deGrom. While the Orioles have a lot of good, young hitters, they aren’t likely to have success the first time they see a two-time Cy Young winner. Also, deGrom tends to be even better during day games. When he won his last Cy Young in 2019, deGrom posted a 1.25 ERA in day games. The upstart Orioles won’t know what hit them when they get a taste of deGrom early in the afternoon on Wednesday.

Of course, the Rangers have struggled offensively lately, scoring just two runs or less in three straight games. However, the Texas lineup will catch a break with the Orioles calling up Grayson Rodriguez to make his MLB debut in this game. While Rodriguez has been sharp at triple-A and is one of Baltimore’s best pitching prospects, that doesn’t guarantee success in his first taste of the big leagues. Even if they aren’t clicking offensively right now, the Rangers have a deep enough lineup to give a rookie like Rodriguez problems. If Texas can score a few runs and get five or six good innings from deGrom, the Rangers can turn the game over to a bullpen that has a 0.83 ERA through five games and should close out a comfortable win at home.

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Max Heering

Sports Betting Analyst

Betting Picks
Max Heering graduated from the University of Kansas Sport Management program in May 2020. Max follows and writes about the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, MLS, college football, and college basketball. In his free time, you can catch Max draining threes on the basketball court.
Nationality: American
Education: Sports Management
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