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The MLB All-Star break is a needed rest for the players, but it’s tough for betting. We have no legitimate baseball games to bet on for four days outside of the All-Star Game. We went 2-1 on ASG bets hitting on the under of 7.5, and NRFI, but losing on the American League’s moneyline. These bets were just to hold us over for the action returning on Friday. It has been a long wait, but the games are back, and the slate is massive on Friday. We have been preparing for the return of MLB all week at WSN and it’s time to lock in on the Friday action. Here are my best bets for July 14.
The San Diego Padres haven’t performed up to their expectations in 2023. They were one of the favorites to win the National League West, but they’re currently sitting in fourth place with a 43-47 record. San Diego always seems to come into the season with championship hopes but constantly drops the ball. This is surprising when the team’s core of Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. are examined. This group could be the best offensive foursome in baseball.
San Diego will travel to Philadelphia to face the Phillies, and this should be an exciting series. The Phillies started the season slowly, but have come alive quietly. Nick Castellanos, one of Philadelphia’s All-Star selections has shined all season. When the team needed a big hit, he delivered. The Phillies also have one of the strongest hitters in the game at the top of the order in Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber doesn’t hit for average, but he is explosive and one of the best home run hitters in the game this year.
Friday’s pitching matchup is very interesting. Yu Darvish will throw for the Padres against Christopher Sanchez of the Phillies. Sanchez has burst onto the scene this season and looked better than Darvish on the bump. However, Darvish has more experience, and this comes into play against quality lineups.
Darvish is 5-6 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He does still have a strong strikeout ability and limits the number of hits allowed, but walks and homers have been a problem. Darvish has allowed 28 walks and 11 home runs in 2023, which isn’t a great combination against a Phillies team with a lot of pop.
Philadelphia winning this game is my best bet, but it’s contingent on Sanchez continuing to pitch well for his team. The wing has a 2.84 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP in 25 innings of work. He does get hit hard at times, but he locates. Pitchers that pepper the zone have a lot of success in the big leagues, and Sanchez has proven this to be true in 2023.
On paper, the Padres have a great chance in this game, but the stats don’t back the rosters. The Padres have too much swing and miss, which has cost them countless runs in 2023. This characteristic doesn’t just fade away after a week off from games. If Philadelphia can have an early home run off Darvish, they should carry this momentum for the remainder of the game and earn the victory.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball, and this seems to be the case year after year. The Dodgers are expected to make a significant push for Shohei Ohtani in free agency, so they stayed under the salary cap. Even though they haven’t gone overboard for payroll, Los Angeles has still been fantastic in 2023. The Dodgers will have to earn the National League West title, but they’re currently second in the World Series odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Los Angeles will begin the second half with an east coast road trip to Queens, New York. The Mets will host the Dodgers, and this is a terrible matchup for the home team. New York has just been an utter disappointment in 2023, considering they have one of the largest payrolls in Major League Baseball. Steve Cohen is spending his money with the goal of winning a World Series within five years, but Buck Showalter hasn’t found any success in 2023.
New York is six games under .500 at 42-48. The Mets improved in the past few weeks, but it’s still not enough success to be confident in a second-half turnaround. The Mets have their best chance of beating the Dodgers once in this series on Friday night with reigning Cy Young winner Justin Verlander on the hill. Verlander has fallen off from his 2022 dominance but still has command of the zone. He also knows how to manipulate the best hitters in baseball, which is helpful against a loaded Dodgers lineup.
Verlander is 3-4 with a 3.6 ERA and a 1.2 WHIP. He is the better pitcher in this matchup with Julio Urias throwing for Los Angeles, but the Dodgers’ lineup is strong one through nine. Urias doesn’t need to be perfect for the Dodgers to win this game. He needs to be average, and the offense must continue providing the run support we saw in the first half. The Dodgers have hit 35 more home runs, and this stat will likely make the difference on Friday. Take Los Angeles on the money line to start the second half.
Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.More info on Tanner Kern
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