Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, July 27

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets

• Time: 7:10 PM EST
• Starting Pitchers: Josiah Gray vs New York Mets
• Moneyline: Nationals +164 | Mets -196
• Run Line: Nationals +1.5 (-114) | Mets -1.5 (-105)
• Total: Over 9 (-112) vs Under 9 (-108)

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!  

My Pick: Under 9

Our first bet of the day comes from a battle between two teams at the bottom of the NL East. While we expected the Nationals to be bad, the Mets' struggles have been one of the biggest surprises in 2023. The team has spent a lot of money building this elite lineup, but they have not been able to deliver consistently. Conversely, this rag-tag Nationals lineup has the fifth-highest batting average in the league but ranks twenty-second in RBIs. That alone is enough to take the under here, but these lineups will also be facing difficult pitching matchups. Look for a low-scoring slugfest between these NL East rivals tonight.

While Josiah Gray (7-8, 3.45 ERA) is not a household name, he is turning into the ace of this Nationals pitching staff. That isn’t saying much, considering Washington’s rotation is among the league’s worst, but he has shown flashes of greatness. One of those moments came in his last start, where the starter held the Giants to one run on four hits over seven innings. Gray also was fantastic against the Mets when he faced them in May, holding them scoreless across six innings. Look for him to replicate that performance tonight against a Mets offense that continues to struggle.

We aren’t rolling with Gray and the Nats to win because of Mets’ starter Kodai Senga (7-5, 3.27). The Japanese star is in his first season in the MLB and appears to have settled in. The 30-year-old has not allowed more than two runs in his previous five starts and owns a 2.08 ERA in July. Senga was decent against the Nationals back in April, allowing two runs over five innings, but he is a much better pitcher now. Look for the Nats to struggle to figure him out, leading to a low run total.

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox

• Time: 8:10 PM EST
• Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs Dylan Cease (CHW)
• Moneyline: Guardians +100 | White Sox -120
• Run Line: Guardians -1.5 (+155) | White Sox +1.5 (-180)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Guardians +100

This AL Central matchup features two mediocre teams, but we like the Guardians to get the win tonight. They have the better roster and will have one of the best young pitchers in the league on the mound. While the White Sox will send out their ace in Dylan Cease, the Guardians' offense is finally starting to string together some impressive performances. Cleveland has won three straight series, and we see them adding another win to their growing total tonight.

We love the Guardians tonight because Tanner Bibee (6-2, 3.04 ERA) will be on the bump. The 24-year-old rookie had a rough June but bounced back to post a 1.14 ERA across four July starts. He allowed just three runs across 23 ⅔ innings this month, and he has been better at limiting base runners. That run will continue tonight as he faces a Chicago lineup that ranks twenty-first in batting average and twenty-third in runs scored.

We are getting favorable odds for the Guardians' moneyline because Dylan Cease (4-3, 4.04 ERA) will get the start for the Sox. While Cease has been solid over his last two starts, the 27-year-old has not looked like the Cy Young candidate he was in 2022. He struggles with his pitch count thanks to an ugly 1.31 WHIP and has made it past the sixth inning just twice this season. Cease was OK against the Guardians in two starts back in May, but it wasn’t pretty. It also came while the Guardians' offense was at its worst. Their lineup has come alive since, and they have scored at least five runs in eight of their previous ten games. Look for them to chase Cease from the game early, leading to a win against the Sox tonight.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs

• Time: 7:45 PM EST
• Starting Pitchers: Justin Steele (CHC) vs Mile Mikolas (STL)
• Moneyline: Cardinals -110 | Cubs -110 
• Run Line: Cardinals +1.5 (-185) | Cubs -1.5 (+150)
• Total: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

Odds Courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

My Pick: Cubs -1.5

Our final bet of the day comes from one of the league’s oldest rivalries. On paper, the Cardinals should be the better team in this matchup. However, the Cubs have looked like a potential playoff contender. Chicago has been hot lately, including winning three of their four games against St. Louis over the weekend. They won two of those by more than one run, and we see that happening again tonight against a Cardinals team that has lost four of their previous six games. 

While the Cubs' pitching rotation has been hit-or-miss, Justin Steele (10-3, 2.95 ERA) has been fantastic. The 28-year-old continues to improve each year and now owns the sixth-best ERA in all of baseball. He has had a rocky July, but he bounced back in his last start to allow two runs across 6 ⅓ innings against the Cardinals. Steele also faced St. Louis last month, holding them to just one run across six innings. St. Louis’s offense broke out yesterday, but it's hard to imagine them suddenly figuring Steele out tonight. Look for Steele to cruise through at least six innings, leading to a lopsided win for Chicago.

Another reason to love this run line is that Miles Mikolas will be starting for the Cardinals. The veteran is having one of his worst seasons, despite briefly bouncing back earlier this month. The momentum didn’t last long, and he has been walloped in his last two outings. That includes his start last Saturday against the Cubs, where he allowed five runs on 11 hits over five innings. Chicago has scored seven or more runs in their previous three games and has done so in five of their last seven. That hot streak will continue against Mikolas tonight.