Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, July 28

Thursday was difficult because there were very few games to bet on across Major League Baseball. However, the Friday slate is massive and there are a lot of critical matchups across the board with playoff implications. The limited action on Thursday gave us extra time to prepare at WSN, so let’s stop wasting time! Here are our best bets for Friday, July 28. 

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles

• Time: 7:05 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Gerrit Cole (SD) vs Grayson Rodriguez (BAL)
• Moneyline: Yankees (-144) | Orioles (+122)
• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+136) | Orioles +1.5 (-164)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!   

 My Pick: Yankees ML (-124)

The New York Yankees have a critical series ahead against the Baltimore Orioles. They will travel to Camden Yards for a three-game set against the division leaders, and these contests could put a dagger in New York’s playoff dreams. The Orioles have been winning consistently as of late, and this is bad news for the Yankees, who are on the outside looking in at the Wild Card. 

The positive for New York is that their franchise face, Aaron Judge, will likely be back in the lineup after injuring his foot earlier in the season. New York has been one of the worst offenses in baseball without Judge. It takes a lineup of quality bats to win games in baseball, but Judge seems to elevate the rest of his teammates’ game. This is the sign of a captain and true leader. 

It will likely take Judge some time to get acclimated to live at-bats again, but his presence is worth a lot for a team that isn’t playing with confidence, The Yankees have survived over the past couple of months, but they haven’t thrived. This weekend would be the perfect time to start thriving against one of the hottest teams in baseball. 

New York is a short favorite in this spot because of their pitching advantage. Gerrit Cole, who will likely win the AL Cy Young award in 2023, will take the mound for the Yankees. He has been fantastic this season, posting a 2.78 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He has recorded 144 strikeouts in 129.1 innings and has a 9-2 record. A pitcher’s record isn’t a great indication of their skill because it relies on their offense.

The fact that Cole is 9-2 is extremely impressive, considering how bad the Yankees lineup has been this season. The Orioles have a great offense, loaded with young stars, but we like Cole to control the strike zone on Friday night. 

Grayson Rodriguez will toe the rubber for the Orioles. The young pitcher hasn’t been at his best since entering the big leagues. He is 2-2 with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. Over 56 innings, he has allowed 68 hits and walked 25 batters with 13 homers allowed. He has a 9.11 ERA at home with a 1-2 record. 

As profitable as the Orioles have been this season, it’s best to fade them on Friday. With Judge returning to the Yankees and Cole taking the mound, this is New York’s game to win. The pitching advantage is vast, which makes New York’s moneyline price high in value. 

Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros

• Time: 8:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Shane McClanahan (TB) vs Cristian Javier (HOU)
• Moneyline: Rays (-110) | Astros (-106)
• Run Line: Rays -1.5 (+152) | Astros +1.5 (-184)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

 My Pick: Under 8.5

The Tampa Bay Rays had one of the best offenses in Major League Baseball before the All-Star break. The team batted a combined .259 with a .331 OBP and a .784 OPS. Plenty of teams in the league don’t have one player producing at this level. Tampa Bay dominated opposing pitchers, but they’ve gone cold and shown no signs of life lately. 

In the second half of the season, Tampa Bay has batted .225 with a .290 OBP and a .668 OPS. The dropoff has been significant, and the Rays have gone from a profitable over club to a team printing free under tickets. 

Tampa Bay will likely not score too much on Friday against Cristian Javier. Javier has been solid this season at 7-2 with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Over 102 innings, he has allowed just 91 hits so he has the ability to keep Tampa Bay guessing. Javier is coming off two strong starts against the Athletics and Angels, so he has some momentum entering Friday. 

The Rays' shaky offense against Javier favors the Astros’ wing. Shane McClanahan, who will throw for the Rays also has an advantage over his opposing offense. McClanahan was injured a few weeks back, which derailed his case for the AL Cy Young. He is currently second in the market to Gerrit Cole of the Yankees.

McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He has fanned 112 batters in 106 innings. He hasn’t skipped a beat since returning from injury, and we believe this will happen once again against the Astros.

The total has been dropping to 8 on some sportsbooks, but FanDuel still has the 8.5 line. At 8, we recommend staying away from the total, but at 8.5 this is a tremendous under wager.