Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, July 7

We have a massive Friday slate of games to kick off the final series before the All-Star break. The marquee contest on the schedule is the Rays and Braves from Tropicana Field. These are two of the best teams in the league going at it in what could be an early World Series preview. We have you covered with this game and four others on Friday. Let’s break down the best ways to make money on the action.

New York Mets @ San Diego Padres

• Time: 9:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander (NYM) vs Yu Darvish (SD)
• Moneyline: Mets (+110) | Padres (-130)
• Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+164)
• Total: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-122)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!  

My Pick: Mets ML (+110)

The Mets are coming off a series win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, and they’ll look to Max Scherzer to keep the momentum going. New York and San Diego have both underperformed this season, but they’re each coming along. However, the Mets have the advantage in this spot with Justin Verlander on the mound, and for plus money, this moneyline is worth taking on Friday.

Verlander hasn’t allowed an earned run in his past 12 innings and has 11 strikeouts over this period. Yu Darvish will throw for San Diego, and he is 5-6 on the season with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Darvish is going through a rough stretch, allowing 14 earned runs in his past 16.1 innings of work. The Mets have been winning games with runs and defense. They’re diversifying their ways of winning, which is a positive sign for a club that couldn’t do anything earlier in the year.

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

• Time: 8:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs Andrew Abbott (CIN)
• Moneyline:  Reds (+114) | Brewers (-134)
• Run Line: Reds +1.5 (-192) | Brewers -1.5 (+158)
• Total: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-122)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Under 8 (-122)

The Brewers have one of the worst offenses in baseball. They’re 28th in batting average at .230, and 24th in runs scored. This isn’t a great stat for playing championship baseball, but it’s solid for betting under the total. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for Milwaukee, and he has allowed just 80 hits in 101.1 innings. His expected ERA is 3.64 compared to his regular ERA at 4.00, so he has gotten unlucky on the mound. 

Andrew Abbott of the Reds has been sensational since arriving in the big leagues. Abbott is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over 37.1 innings. This has come against powerful offenses like the Astros, Cardinals, Padres, and Orioles. Cincinnati is a team that relies on offense, but we don’t see them scoring much off of Burnes. Additionally, Abbott should continue to pitch at a high level because he hasn’t shown signs that he can’t handle the show. 

Atlanta Braves @ Tampa Bay Rays

• Time: 6:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton (ATL) vs Tyler Glasnow (TB)
• Moneyline: Braves (+102) | Rays (-120)
• Run Line: Braves -1.5 (+164) | Rays  +1.5 (-200)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-102) | Under 8.5 (-120)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Rays ML (-120)

The Rays and Braves will collide in one of the season's biggest series. These are two of the best teams in baseball, and it could be an early World Series preview. The Rays are the better side in Friday’s opener with Tyler Glasnow on the mound. His numbers aren’t as good as Charlie Morton, but his upside is much higher. 

Glasnow has elite strikeout ability, which is clear by his 23 punch-outs in his past 10.2 innings of work. The pitcher likely won’t go more than five innings, and then Kevin Cash will look for his bullpen to shut the door on Atlanta. When it comes down to it, these are two phenomenal teams, but the Rays are 34-13 at home, and they have a dominant pitching staff that can help them break out of their inconsistent play as of late. 

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

• Time: 6:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
• Moneyline: Phillies (-124) | Marlins (+106)
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+136) | Marlins  +1.5 (-164)
• Total: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Phillies ML (-124)

The Phillies are coming off a series sweep over the Rays, which is a huge confidence boost heading into the weekend. They’ve been dominant on the road, and I think this momentum will continue in Miami. Zack Wheeler will pitch for Philadelphia, and he got roughed up in his past two starts, but he keeps the ball in the yard and has a ton of swing-and-miss ability. He’ll pitch against Sandy Alcantara, who hasn’t lived up to his Cy Young performance from 2022. 

The pitcher is 3-7 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. His expected ERA is better at 4.22, but this is the reigning, defending, undisputed Cy Young winner from a year ago. He needs to improve, but we won’t see it in 2023. This is a crucial series for both sides, but Philadelphia has the more talented team, and it should show on Friday and throughout the series. 

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians

• Time: 6:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Daniel Lynch (KC) vs Aaron Civale (CLE)
• Moneyline: Royals (+160) | Guardians (-190)
• Run Line: Royals +1.5 (-128) | Guardians -1.5 (+106)
• Total: Over 8 (-122) | Under 8 (+100)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Guardians -1.5 (+106)

Aaron Civale will pitch for the Guardians, and he is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. The pitcher is by no means overpowering, but he has been efficient. The ERA adjustors have shown he has gotten lucky at times, but Civale is a ground ball pitcher who kept the ball in the yard. A big part of the Royals' scoring this season has been through homers, so this will limit Kansas City’s offense. 

Daniel Lynch will pitch for the Royals, and he hasn’t been as good as Civale. The pitcher is 2-3 with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. The main thing to consider in this game is the cumulative pitching numbers. Cleveland has a 3.86-team ERA, whereas the Royals are at 5.29. Both sides don’t have the best offense, but the Guardians are at least a serviceable team at 42-44, whereas the Royals are 25-62 as we approach the break.