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Kevin Gausman (7-5, 3.03 ERA) has been among the best pitchers in the AL this season. His strikeout totals have been impressive, and the veteran is putting up one of the best seasons of his career. However, those numbers are boosted by his play at home. When on the road in 2023, Gausman’s ERA is higher, and his strikeout totals are lower. He averages 9.4 strikeouts at home this season but just 6.8 when on the road. Gausman has only surpassed 7.5 strikeouts once in his previous six starts, and we think that trend continues today.
Gausman did see this Seattle team in April and struck out 13 batters. While the Mariners' offense has disappointed this season, they have gotten much better since they faced the Jays’ starter earlier this season. The most significant change to their offense has been the play of Julio Rodriguez. The budding superstar was awful to start the season, but his numbers have been on the rise. J-Rod owns a .290 batting average in July and has been at his best at home. Look for him and the Mariners to push Gausman today, leading to under eight strikeouts.
This is our favorite prop bet of the weekend, and we are jumping on it before the odds move again. Dylan Cease (4-3, 4.18 ERA) is not the pitcher he was last season, but he turned things around in June by posting a 2.20 ERA. The 27-year-old has struck out more than seven batters in four of his previous six games. That trend will continue today as he faces a division rival that he has dominated in the past.
The Twins have played well against Cease this season, but they have not seen him since he has improved over the last month. Considering Cease’s impressive strikeout totals and the fact that the Twins own a .189 average against him in 106 starts, you can expect him to have an impressive performance today.
Another big reason we love this bet is that the Twins strike out more than any other team in baseball. They were the first team to strike out more than 1,000 times this season, a category they lead by over 60. While their offense has improved in the second half of the season, they are still striking out at a high rate. If you place one bet this weekend, make it this one.
Just when everyone started to forget about Christian Yelich, he returned to his MVP form. Yelich posted a .320 batting average in June and has a .345 average so far in July. His power has also returned over the last month, and he already has five home runs this month, with three of those coming over the previous week. Yelich had a double last night to keep his hot streak going, and things should only get easier today as he faces a pitcher making his MLB debut.
The Braves will send rookie Allan Winans out to the mound to face the Crew tonight. The 27-year-old was announced as the starter last night thanks to a fantastic season in Triple-A. Winans had a 2.81 ERA this season. However, he has not played a single game at the big league level, not even as a September call-up. That is going to affect him today, especially when he finds himself up against a former MVP in Christian Yelich. Expect the rookie to make some mistakes and for the red-hot Yelich to take advantage to send one deep today.
Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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