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Zach Wheeler (2-1, 4.73 ERA) has not started the season well. He gives up hits and struggles with walking batters, leading to a higher ERA and lower strikeout total. The veteran struck out 11 in his last start, but it came against a Rockies team with the fifth-most strikeouts in the league.
There is also the fact that Wheeler has had issues on the road the last couple of seasons. That hasn’t changed yet, as he owns a 7.71 ERA in his two road starts this season. That’s not all, as Wheeler was bad during day games last season, posting going 4-5 with a 4.53 ERA.
The Astros saw Wheeler twice last season in the World Series, meaning many of these players have seen him and will know what to expect. Wheeler had less than six strikeouts in both appearances.
Nolan Arenado (.257 BA, 2 HR, 14 RBI) hasn’t flashed much power this season, but don’t expect that to last. He posted 30 home runs in 2022, two of which came against the Dodgers. Arendo did well against the NL West powerhouse, posting a .318 batting average and a .636 slugging percentage.
Arenado also owns the historical advantage against Clayton Kershaw (4-1, 2.32 ERA). The Cardinal has a .313 career average against the Dodger starter, with five home runs and 12 RBIS in 67 at-bats.
With those career numbers, don’t expect Arendao to fall victim to Kershaw’s hot start. His breakout game is tonight, and I’m putting my money on him going deep.
These aren’t great odds, but this should be an easy win tomorrow. As he struggles to find control, things haven’t gone well for Burnes (2-1, 4.55 ERA) in 2023. However, his breaking stuff has been nasty. It’s only a matter of time before he can dix the control and return to his high strikeout numbers.
We have seen Burnes for a few seasons and know how good he is. His breaking balls are devastating, but they can take time to control through his first few starts. He will benefit from pitching at home, where he tallied 145 of his 243 strikeouts last season.
The Angels have never seen Burnes before. Anthony Rendon is the only Angel to have faced him, going 0-1. It will take some time to adjust to his breaking stuff, and that will lead to many swinging strikes from an Angels team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts.
This is my favorite weekend bet, as the odds are too good to pass up. Rizzo (.295 ERA, 5 HR, 13 RBI) will face a familiar foe today in Nathan Eovaldi (2-2, 5.20 ERA). He has 18 at-bats against the struggling veteran and has a .444 batting average with two home runs.
Rizzo only has five home runs in 2023 (all against RHP), but he has a three-game hitting streak going. The first baseman has been seeing the ball well all season, and today that will translate into a home run.
Coors Field is always the first place to look when picking a home run prop. Today we are going with Arizona first baseman Christian Walker (.237 BA, 3 HR, 17 RBI). He’s had a tough start to the season, but he will have an excellent opportunity to turn things around against the Rockies today.
Walker posted 36 home runs last season, showing he can be a reliable power hitter. Five of those came against Colorado, three of which were at Coors Field. Walker had 36 at-bats at Coors in 2022 and posted a .361 batting average and a .694 slugging percentage. Those are big numbers and should provide the perfect scene for a power surge.
Walker will face Noah Davis today (0-0, 0.93 ERA). The rookie has three career appearances and looked sharp, but they all came on the road. That means he will be making his first start in the home run capital of the MLB. Expect Walker to take advantage early in the game, earning us a nice payout.
Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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