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Best NRFI Bets This Weekend | April 29-30

Written by: Michael Savio
Published April 29, 2023
13 min read
Best NRFI Bets This Weekend

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros - RHP Zach Wheeler (PHI) vs RHP Cristian Javier (HOU)

My Pick: Over 0.5 runs (+110 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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4.3/5

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Zach Wheeler (2-1, 4.73 ERA) is an incredible pitcher but has been rocky in 2023. He has just two quality starts, and he’s been getting hammered on the road. He has given up nine runs in his 9 ⅓ innings pitched on the road this season, the most recent coming against the lowly White Sox. It’s not a surprise, considering his ERA ballooned to almost two full points higher in away games in 2022.

One big reason for his struggles has been his control. His strikeout stuff is there, but he is walking batters and allowing too many base runners. That will be a problem today against an Astros whose offense has come alive of late. They may be getting Yordan Alvarez back in the lineup, but their top-of-the-order has been hot without him. They have scored runs in three of their last four games, including last night against this Phillies team. Whether Alvarez starts or not, the Astros have enough talent at the top of their order to generate runs off a Phillies starter that has struggled on the road.

Cristian Javier (2-0, 3.21 ERA) is having a great start to his season, allowing just one earned run in three of his four games. However, this Phillies team is starting to come alive. They have been hitting and winning, led by the hot bats of Nick Castellanos (.333 BA, 22 R, 3 HR, 16 RBI) and rookie Bryson Scott (.339 BA, 2 HR, 9 RBI). Kyle Schwarber (.219 BA, 6 HR, 12 RBI) is also heating up with hits in four of his last five games, including a first-inning home run last night. Expect them to generate at least one run in the first inning.

San Fransisco Giants vs San Diego Padres - LHP Sean Manaea (SF) vs RHP Joe Musgrove (SD)

My Pick: Under 0.5 Runs (+180 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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4.3/5

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If you look at the ERAs of these two pitchers, you can understand why bookmakers have set these odds. However, there are a lot of signs that we will see a quiet first inning between the Giants and the Padres. The first is the state of these two offenses, with the Giants ranking nineteenth in batting average (.240) and the Padres ranking twenty-ninth (.215). The Giant's offense has been improved over the last couple of series, but this roster doesn’t have the talent for this to last long. Conversely, the Padres' offense has been awful but is full of some of the best hitters in baseball. Something is off with the Padres, and the return of Fernando Tatis Jr hasn’t fixed it. They did not score in the first inning in their previous series, generating offense later in games. Expect that to continue tonight against Sean Manaea.

No, that wasn’t a typo. Sean Manaea (0-1, 6.61 ERA) has not had a pleasant start to his 2023 season, but that hasn’t translated to first innings runs. Though things get ugly quickly, he has yet to surrender any runs in the first. He has been able to cruise against several offenses playing far better than the Padres. Given this and the state of the San Diego lineup has, we are loving the underbet.

Joe Musgrove (1-0, 5.40 ERA) will get his second start of the season tonight for the Padres. The ace was decent in his first start against a hot Arizona offense, giving up three innings and striking out six over five innings. He struggled to miss bats, but that was a problem for everyone who had faced the Diamondbacks earlier in the year. He will return home to San Diego, where he posted a 2.86 ERA last season. Expect Musgrove to improve and shut down this Giants team.

Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers - LHP Reid Detmers (LAA) vs RHP Corbin Burnes (MIL)

My Pick: Under 0.5 runs (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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After a scorching start, the Brewer's offense has shown some cracks over the last couple of series. That shouldn’t be overly surprising, given they own one of baseball's streakiest lineups. They have shuffled things around in an attempt to jump-start something, but the top four hitters remain unreliable. Christian Yelich (.229 BA, 3 HR, 11 RBI, .321 OBP) is one of the worst leadoff hitters in the NL, while Wily Adames (.247 BA, 4 HR, 13 RBI, .361 OBP) is one of the streakiest. He can put up big numbers, but the shortstop has gone hitless in the five games before this season. Things won’t get any easier for either of them as they face a solid young Angels starter.

Reid Detmers (0-1, 4.15 ERA) will get the start for the Halos today. He has looked good in his last two outings, combining to give up four runs and strike out 13 over 12 innings. It isn’t overwhelming, but he has the stuff to shut down opposing teams. Detmers will also have the advantage of not having faced this team yet, meaning it should take at least one time through the lineup for a struggling Brewer offense to figure him out.

The Brewers will have former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes (2-1, 4.55 ERA). Aside from dominating the Diamondbacks for eight shutout innings, things haven’t looked good for Burnes. He has been having issues with his location, and it’s leading to more walks. It’s a problem, but it won’t last. Burnes has his pitches breaking well, but he just needs to control them a bit more. The Angels have not seen Burnes before, and that will be their undoing in the first inning. Burnes has some nasty stuff that is going to induce a lot of swinging strikes the first time through the order. We’ll see if this is his breakout game, but expect a clean first inning from Burnes. 

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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

344 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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