Best MLB Prop Bets This Weekend | MLB Player Props, June 10-11

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit Tigers

My Pick: Matthew Boyd Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is our favorite prop bet of the weekend, and the odds are even better than we expected. Tigers’ starting pitcher Matthew Boyd (3-4, 5.57) has been bad in 2023. He posted a 6.46 ERA in May, allowing 17 runs over 23 ⅔ innings. Things have been horrible in his five home starts, where he is 0-4 with an 8.34 ERA. 

Boyd has allowed more than 2.5 runs in three of his last five starts, but those two he went under in came against the White Sox and Royals. Good offenses have absolutely shelled him, with the Rangers, Mariners, and Orioles all scoring at least five runs against him. We don’t see that getting better tonight against one of the top offenses in baseball.

Boyd’s stats make this appealing, but he’ll also face a good Arizona lineup. They have scored at least five runs in their previous four games, including a whopping 11 against the Tigers last night. While Boyd does have strikeout stuff, the Diamondbacks have the third least strikeouts in the MLB. They also rank in the top ten in batting average, RBIs, steals, and on-base percentage. Combine that with Boyd’s poor play, and you have an easy cover today.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers

My Pick: Bobby Miller Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bobby Miller (2-0, 1.06 ERA) has been as good as advertised through his first three career starts. The Dodgers’ top pitching prospect has allowed just two runs and two walks over 17 innings. This is even more impressive because two of those starts came against the Yankees and Braves. Those are two of the top teams in the league, but they did not have any answers for Miller. 

We like this bet because he has the ability to strike out batters. He struck out seven over six innings in his last start against the Yankees, benefiting partly from being so new to the league. Teams haven’t had a chance to see him against much big-league competition, and we think that advantage leads to at least strikeouts tonight.

The Phillies’ offense is another reason that we love this bet. They have the eighth most strikeouts in the league, and they struck out eight times in the first six innings last night against the Dodgers bullpen. It was also the third consecutive game where they faced a team using their bullpen to begin the game, meaning they haven’t faced a true starter since Monday. That will work in Miller’s favor, leading us to lock this bet in.

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays

My Pick: Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Runs (+205 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

At 31 years old, Yandy Diaz (.315 BA, 12 HR, 34 RBI) is having the best season of his career. His average is far above his .282 career average, and he is just two home runs short of tying his career high. Diaz has been even better in June, with a .346 batting average over his six games. He had two hits in three of those games, and we love his chances to repeat that tonight. 

Diaz matches up very well with the Rangers’ Nathan Eovaldi (8-2, 2.24 ERA) on the mound this afternoon. He has a .340 batting average against righties, a .324 average at home, and a .330 average during day games. Those will all be in play today, and it is going to lead to yet another multi-hit performance.

Eovaldi is another veteran who is having a career season. He had a 0.96 ERA in May and threw a scoreless six innings in his lone June start. However, those numbers are inflated by his favorable matchups. Many of the teams they have faced are struggling on offense, including the Mariners, Tigers, Pirates, and A’s. Now he’ll face one of the best lineups in the league, including the red-hot Yandy Diaz.

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