Best MLB Prop Bets This Weekend | MLB Player Props, June 3-4

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros

My Pick: Cristian Javier over 6.5 strikeouts (-121 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

While the odds aren’t great, we feel this is the closest you can get to a lock for a prop bet. Javier (6-1, 2.97) is pitching as well as anyone of late, with four quality starts over his last five appearances. That run includes a fantastic performance against the Angels, where he struck out 11 batters. Combined with last season, Javier has a whopping 35 strikeouts over his previous three starts against the Angels. Given the play of LA’s offense this season, we see him adding another double-digit performance tonight.

Speaking of LA’s offense, they have been unable to find consistency for most of the season. Despite having two of the best hitters in baseball, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the Angels have been struggling. Their offense ranks in the top ten in batting average and runs, but a few monster games inflate that total. You can see that in their last four games where they combined to score 19 runs, but 12 came from one game.

Oh, we almost forgot the best part. The Angels roster has combined to face Javier 64 times and struck out in 36 at-bats. That includes Trout, who has struck out in seven of his nine at-bats against the Astros starter.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds

My Pick: Graham Ashcraft Over 5.5 strikeouts (+123 at Caesars Sportsbook)

This is our favorite prop bet of the weekend, and there are several reasons why. Graham Ashcraft (3-3, 5.55 ERA) had an awful May, undoing the 2.10 ERA he put up in April. While he has been giving up hits and runs, the Reds have left him in for at least five innings regardless. That gives him a lot of time to strikeout batters, and he now has 11 over his last 10 innings. That great ratio is about to improve against a Brewers team whose offense has disappeared. With a weak opponent and a rising strikeout rate, Ashcroft could be in for his highest strikeout total of the season, making this an easy cover.

Speaking of the Brewers’ offense, their performance dropped off in May. They now rank in the bottom six in the league in batting average, hits, runs, RBIs, and on-base percentage. They have good power, but the lack of baserunners costs them many games. On top of that, Milwaukee has the fifth-highest strikeout total in all of baseball. That has been on full display over the last two games, as they struck out 17 times against the opposing starters. 

In last night’s game, the Brewers were stuck out six times by spot starter Brandon Williamson. The Reds rookie had the best start of his career, meaning the more-experienced Ashcroft should be in for a big night.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets

My Pick: Jose Berrios over 4.5 strikeouts (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jose Berrios (5-4, 3.86 ERA) had a rough start to his 2023 campaign but bounced back in May. The veteran posted a 3.19 ERA last month and has only allowed four runs over his last three starts (19 ⅔ innings). That includes an impressive showing against the great Rays offense, where he allowed one run on five hits over seven innings. Along with his improved ERA has come a boosted strikeout rate. Berrios has struck out more than four batters in four of his last five starts, which is a strong sign that he can do it again tonight. 

The Mets came into the season with high expectations, but those have been shattered over the first two months. They have barely been able to keep their record above the .500 mark, thanks in part to an underperforming offense. They rank in the middle of the league in most offensive categories, far below where their massive payroll should have them. While strikeouts haven’t been a big part of their struggles, they were against the Blue Jays last night. The Mets struck out eight times over  7 ⅔ innings against Toronto starter Chris Bassitt, who has a similar strikeout ratio to Berrios. 

We believe the Jays' starter will keep his hot streak going and surpass the 4.5 strikeout mark early in this one.

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