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This is our favorite longshot of the weekend, but we have reasons for feeling confident it will hit. The first is the recent play of Michael Wacha, who owns a 0.36 ERA across four May starts. He has been limiting walks and hits and hasn’t allowed a run in his last 14 innings pitched. That includes his lone day start of the season, where he allowed five hits and zero runs over six innings. Wacha’s strikeout totals have fluctuated throughout the season, ranging between 2-11. While that isn’t overwhelming, it’s not the only reason we love this bet.
The other reason we are jumping on this bet is Aaron Judge. The slugging center fielder is having a fantastic season, despite missing some time with an injury. Still, despite a brief stint on the IL, he has the 23rd most strikeouts in the league. That makes this bet tempting, but what puts it over the top is the fact that Judge is 0-15 with ten strikeouts against Wacha over his career. That is a limited sample size, but it is also an incredibly high strikeout total. Add that to the fact that Judge owns a .225 average at home, and we think he is destined to be one of the first strikeout victims of the day.
We love Justin Verlander (2-2, 3.60 ERA) to get the win tonight for a couple of reasons. First is the fact that the Rockies owns a combined .143 batting average against the former Cy Young winner. Verlander has also looked fairly sharp is his four starts this season. Aside from a bumpy outing against the Rays, he has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his other starts. That includes in his last start, where he allow three hits and one run over eight innings to get the win over the Guardians. The Rockies are always dangerous at home, but we believe Verlander can overcome that to keep their bats quiet tonight.
The other reason we love this bet is Chase Anderson (0-0, 1.15 ERA). The veteran will be making his third start of the season after looking good in his first two. However, those came against the Marlins and the Reds, and he combined to throw just 10 ⅔ innings. He will be a familiar face for many of these Mets, who own a combined .308 batting average against Anderson. Watch out for the struggling Starling Marte, as the veteran owns a .432 batting average against Anderson over 37 at bats. Expect big numbers off of Anderson early, allowing Verlander to exit with the lead and register a win tonight.
The Phillies have had a tough May, despite the red-hot bat of Bryce Harper. The veteran returned to make his season debut in the beginning of the month, and he has been a hitting machine since. While his power has yet to truly emerge, his average and impressive .424 on base percentage show us it is only a matter of time before it does. While he went hitless last night, he has two multi-hit performances over his last four games. Harper also has an advantage over Morton tonight, as he owns a .400 career batting average against the veteran. With his hot bat and the confidence of his past dominance of Morton, tonight should be a another big game for Harper.
Charlie Morton (5-4, 3.61 ERA) will get the start for the Braves tonight. Morton had a strong April, but May has been a different story. The veteran owns a 4.70 ERA this month, thanks in part to his inability to miss bats. He has given up 25 hits over 23 innings this month, meaning he is putting a lot of baserunners on. His struggles have been worse at home, where he is 2-2 with a 4.30 ERA. This, combined with his numbers against Harper, has us loving this value bet this afternoon.
Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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