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Every pitch means more in the postseason. It’s going to be a great month of playoff baseball, and there are some very competitive matchups on the board.
The playoffs will kick off with the Rays and Rangers from Tropicana Field. Kevin Cash has elected to give Tyler Glasnow, his most dominant strikeout pitcher the ball, in game one against Texas.
Glasnow is an elite arm, and he is hungry for success following his UCL surgery last year which kept him off the mound in October. However, we’re not trusting him to surpass his strikeout total on Tuesday.
The pitcher recorded 162 strikeouts in 120 innings, and he is dominant enough to hit this in a few innings on the hill. Yet, the Rangers have a solid offense that will make him work and drive his pitch count up throughout the game.
The biggest reason to take the under on Glasnow’s total is because of how Cash approaches the game as a manager. If we go back to the World Series against the Dodgers in 2020, he pulled Blake Snell when the wing was dealing. However, the manager goes by the book and doesn’t want to let his starters get tired in the playoffs.
A pitcher doesn’t have as much freedom on the mound in October, so look for Glasnow to have a short leash if he gets into trouble. This is especially true in the Wild Card round, where the series is only three games.
Corbin Burnes is one of the best big-game pitchers in baseball. He has pitched in the postseason before, and we like him to control the game today against the Diamondbacks.
However, Arizona does present some challenges for the pitcher. They’re very pesky at the plate and don’t go down without a fight. This is a quality the young Diamondbacks have shown throughout the playoffs, and we believe it will be present once again on Monday.
Corbin Burnes strikeout total is listed at 5.5 on Monday and the under is plus money. Burnes has surpassed this total a lot, but there are too many reasons to go against the wing on Monday.
Going back to our theory for Glasnow’s under, pitchers have a much shorter leash in the postseason. Even a wing-like Burnes can get pulled in situations that he would usually handle in the regular season.
With starters in the bullpen, managers have a lot more options to maneuver lineups. Additionally, the Diamondbacks are one of the best teams in baseball at not striking out and we believe this quality will transcend to the playoffs.
Burnes’ strikeout numbers haven’t been dominant in his past two starts. He fanned four in his last game against Miami and then six the start before versus the Cardinals.
The Diamondbacks are a hungry team that knows how to work counts at the plate. If they do what they’ve done all season Burnes will stay under his total.
Trea Turner has been the most consistent hitter for the Phillies all season. He has weathered the tough times and is entering the postseason with a lot of momentum.
Turner posted a .455 batting average over the past week and has three doubles in his past five games. He will be a critical piece for the Phillies offensively against the Marlins.
Philadelphia will face Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins. While Luzardo has been dominant at times, there are a lot of concerns about the pitcher’s game. Turner can surpass 2+ bases with one big swing off the pitcher.
Luzardo is 10-9 on the season with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He is 12th in MLB in strikeouts with 208 on the year, but there are a few outlier starts to be concerned about heading into October.
Look for Turner to have a big day and the Phillies to pick up the victory in game one of the series.
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Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.More info on Tanner Kern
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