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Image for Michael Savio Michael Savio - Published September 30, 2023

Best MLB Prop Bets Today | MLB Player Props September 30

Braves vs Dodgers Predictions

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves 

My Pick: Spencer Strider to record the win (-375 at PointsBet Sportsbook)

Spencer Strider (19-5, 3.81 ERA) has not had a good September, but that will change tonight. He has won eight of his last ten starts, including his previous three outings. One of those came against the Nationals last week, despite not being one of his best outings. He is too talented to get beaten by this bad, floundering offense two times in a row, especially with a chance to win 20 games on the line. That is a rare feat in the modern MLB, and you can bet Spencer won’t let it slip away.

Another reason we love this bet is that the Nationals will have Joan Adon (2-4, 6.42 ERA) on the mound. The 25-year-old has been hit hard since joining the club, and September has been no different. He owns a 7.23 ERA across four starts this month, including a loss to the Braves. Adon allowed the Braves to score four runs on five hits and four walks across 4 ⅔ innings. He has surrendered at least four runs in four of his previous five starts and will do so again tonight against one of the league’s best offenses.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants

My Pick: Clayton Kershaw to record the win (-170 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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Caesars

9/10

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While Clayton Kershaw (13-4, 2.42 ERA) is no longer the dominant ace he once was, he has been fantastic for the Dodgers this season. He owns a 1.93 ERA across three September starts, though he has not made it more than five innings in each. Considering the playoffs kick off next week, the Dodgers are limiting the veterans' pitch count, which won’t change tonight. 

Kershaw’s last start came against the Giants, where he held them scoreless and struck out five over five innings. It was the second time he has faced the Giants this season, with a 1.64 ERA over 11 innings. The Giants have a .179 batting average against the future Hall of Famer and nine strikeouts.

San Francisco’s offensive struggles have been on full display over the last two weeks. They have not scored more than two runs just once in their previous nine games, which is bad news when facing a red-hot Kershaw. Considering San Francisco's playoff hopes have officially ended, we don’t think they put up much of a fight in this one.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

My Pick: Isaac Paredes over 0.5 home runs (+475 ar DraftKings Sportsbook)

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DraftKings

10/10

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If you are looking for a prop with some high-value odds, look no further! Isaac Paredes (.250 BA, 31 HR, 97 RBI) has had a breakout season for the Rays. In his first full season in the big leagues, he ranks inside the top-25 in home runs, RBIs, and OPS. The slugger has been seeing the ball well of late, with two home runs over his last four games.

A big reason we like Paredes to go deep this afternoon is his success against left-handed pitchers this season. He has been significantly better when facing left-handed pitching over the last two seasons. This year, he has a .252 batting average, four home runs, and 25 RBIs against lefties. While those numbers aren’t overwhelming, they are above what he has done against righties. 

Paredes will be facing Hyun Jin Ryu (3-3, 3.31 ERA) on the mound tonight. Ryu’s last start came against the Rays, with the veteran surrendering three home runs over 4 ⅓ innings. Paredes was not one of the Rays to go deep, but it does show how Ryu has some issues keeping the ball in the park. We think he capitalizes on the aging pitcher tonight.

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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

269 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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