Best NRFI Bets Today, October 16

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros – Nathan Eovaldi (R) vs. Framber Valdez (L)

Under 0.5 Runs (-120 at DraftKings)

The first game of the ALCS between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros was a huge surprise to many MLB fans and experts as they didn't expect it to be a low-scoring game. The pitching in game one with the Astros' Justin Verlander and the Rangers' Jordan Montgomery was stout and efficient.

In just over six innings pitched, Montgomery and Verlander allowed a total of 11 hits, and three walks while delivering 11 strikeouts with Verlander allowing two runs. 

Nathan Eovaldi (1.32 ERA in 13.2 postseason innings played) will start in his third postseason game this season for the Rangers on Monday against the Astros. Framber Valdez (10.38 ERA in 4.1 postseason innings played) will start for Houston in his second postseason game.

While the Rangers are among the most efficient batting teams in the AL, ranking first in most major categories, they are not the fastest teams to account for runs in the first innings. The Rangers are ranked 18th in the MLB in runs accounted for in the first inning (0.51). They only scored once in any of the five postseason games. 

The Rangers will have their best chance potentially throughout the rest of the postseason against Framber.

The Astros are ranked third in the MLB in runs accounted for in the first inning (0.69). They will be going against Nathan Eovaldi, who has had a terrific postseason in his two games played and started.

The Astros scored in the first inning of the first two wins in the ALDS round against the Minnesota Twins, but have been suppressed at the plate since.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Zach Gallen (R) vs. Zack Wheeler (R)

Under 0.5 Runs (-125 at DraftKings)

Game one of the NLCS round will feature a matchup of two underdogs who defeated juggernaut teams and get one series away from a World Series appearance. The Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks got to this point in the postseason by using their rhythm developing from the wild card rounds and defeating elite teams in the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers, respectively.

Another indicator of the Phillies and the Diamondbacks' postseason wins was the stellar pitching throughout the two previous rounds. The Phillies have accounted for an ERA of 1.53 in six postseason games while the Diamondbacks have accounted for an ERA of 2.20 in five games.

Both Arizona and Philadelphia are set to go with their ace pitchers for the postseason. The Diamondbacks are set to start Zac Gallen (3.18 ERA in 11.1 postseason innings pitched), while the Phillies are set to go with Zack Wheeler (2.08 ERA in 13 postseason innings pitched).

These two pitchers will be the biggest reason why it will be a low-scoring game in game one, at least, in the first inning. This could be a back-and-forth series that could last to seven games.

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