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Odds Courtesy of FanDuel.
While the odds suggest a low-scoring affair, we are jumping on the over here. These teams are both in the top ten in the league in runs, and we see that continuing tonight. While Toronto starter Jose Berrios has been pitching well, there are a lot of factors in play that signal he will be in for a long night. On the other side, Toronto has enjoyed a ton of success against O’s starter Kyle Bradish. We recommend locking this bet in before the public catches on and the odds change.
The Toronto offense has been quieter over the last couple of weeks, but things have turned around over the previous few games. It's no surprise considering the amount of talent this lineup has. We expect to see that turnaround continue tonight as they face Orioles starter Kyle Bradish, who they hit hard last season, combining for a .344 batting average over five games. Most of that production has come from their core of stars, including Bo Bichette (.333 BA against Bradish), Vladimir Guerrero Jr (.385 BA), and George Springer (.545 average). Considering Bradish’s play so far this season, we expect them to keep that success going tonight.
Jose Berrios (6-4, 3.61 ERA) has rebounded nicely after a rough April and has not allowed more than three runs since May 1. However, his success hasn’t always been pretty. He has had some struggles with walks, leading to some shorter outings. While that isn’t great, there are two other stats have us jumping on this bet. The first is that Berrios has a 4.40 ERA over his eight road games this season, with batters posting a .264 average against him. The second is his play during night games, where he owns a 4.20 ERA over ten games. Both factors will be at play tonight, signaling a long night for Berrios.
Considering the ability of this Baltimore offense and the struggles of Berrios during road and night games, we are more than happy to grab the over at +100.
The Baltimore offense has been clicking on all cylinders over the last few games. They put up 20 runs in their three-game series against the Royals and are now tenth in the league in runs scored. Left fielder Austin Hays has led their recent surge, posting a .304 average over his last seven games. They should have slugging first baseman Ryan Mountcastle back tonight, which will be a massive boost for this lineup.
The key to the Orioles' offensive success will be the bat of Adley Rutschman. He has been cold so far in June but will face a familiar face on the mound tonight. In ten at-bats against Berrios, Rutschman has seven hits, two doubles, and a home run. That will give the young catcher confidence tonight, leading to a big night at the plate.
Kyle Bradish (2-2, 4.25 ERA) will get the start for Baltimore tonight. The 26-year-old had a solid May but has reverted to his old form in June. In two starts this month, Bradish has allowed six runs and 13 hits over nine innings. Those are ugly numbers that will get even worse tonight as he faces a Toronto team with a .384 average, .451 on-base percentage, and .575 slugging percentage against him. Look for him to get into trouble early, helping make this bet an easy cover.
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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