Image for Tony Garcia Tony Garcia - October 14, 2022

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers Predictions, Odds, Picks

  • Battle of Cy Young contenders
  • Offenses look to get going in game three
  • X-factors to watch

Braves at Brewers Odds

Atlanta Braves At Milwaukee Brewers 18 05

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Atlanta vs Milwaukee Prediction and Picks

An over/under line of 6.5 is just about as low as it gets in baseball, but with just four runs scored over the first two games and aces on the mound, it’s about right. Neither team has hit the ball well the past week and that should continue with a short turnaround on Wednesday. We like the under.

Picks:

Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline

Under 6.5

Garcia’s 2021 record: (13-8)

  • Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 road games
  • Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Over is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 overall
  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee
  • Under is 7-3 in Braves last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games
  • Brewers are 19-8 in their last 27 overall
  • Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter
  • Over is 9-3-1 in Brewers last 13 overall
  • Over is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record
  • Under is 23-9-3 in Brewers last 35 games vs. a left-handed starter

Battle of Cy Young Contenders

Max Fried finished fifth in Cy Young voting in 2020. Corbin Burnes won the award in 2021. Expect fireworks on the mound Wednesday afternoon when these two square of in the series finale.

Starting with Fried, he got hiti around a bit his last time out for the first time in more than a month. The lefty gave up a season-high nine hits to the Padres and allowed four earned runs across six innings in a no-decision.

It was the fifth consecutive start Fried has lasted at least six innings and he’s yet to even need 100 pitches in a game to do so. On the year, he now has 4-2 records with a 3.14 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 41 strikeouts in 43 innings.

He will be countered by Burnes, whose record is nowhere near reflective of the season he’s had thus far. The power righty comes into play just 1-2 overall, yet he ranks in the top 10 with a 1.77 ERA (8th), 0.79 WHIP (2nd), and 57 strikeouts (3rd) in 45.2 innings.

Since giving up three runs in five innings on Opening Day, Burnes has thrown six straight quality starts, allowing six total runs in those games. Burnes has a strikeout to walk ratio of better than 7 to 1, and has allowed more than five hits in just one game all season.

His only issue has been the lack of run support. Milwaukee has scored just two runs in each of his past four outings.

Not to mention, runs have already been at a premium in this series, with just four combined runs scored so far and the winning team shutting out the opponent in each game.

Offenses Looking to Get Back on Track

The Brewers have hardly struggled to score runs this season. In fact, they’ve scored the third-most in the National League and the fourth most in all of baseball.

That said, their offense has been a bit stymied as of late. After Tuesday’s shutout, Milwaukee has scored just one run over the past two games and been held to three runs or fewer in four of its last five.

Atlanta, meanwhile, has struggled to score. The Braves are third from the bottom in the national league in total runs, a major reason they haven’t been able to string more than two wins together at any point this season.

Over the past week, Atlanta is hitting just .206 as a team with a .276 OBP and .634 OPS. During that time Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson and Matt Olson are all hitting .208 or worse. However after missing a handful of games, Ronald Acuna Jr. came back on Tuesday to hit a home run and drive in all three runs of the game, so the hope for Braves fans is he will continue to spark the offense.

X-factors to Watch

Runs will be at a premium in this game, so an X-factor should be someone who has a track record of success in these situations.

For the Brewers, we are taking the person who’s been best against lefties this year and that’s Hunter Renfroe. The power-hitting outfielder is hitting .258 vs. south paws with five home runs and eight RBIs in just 31 at bats.

For Atlanta, we’re going to look at people who do well on the road and in the day and the man who fits that mold is Austin Riley. Riley hasn’t hit a home run since May 2, but all seven of his long balls this year have come during day games. He’s also hitting .255 away from Truist Park compared to .238 in his home park.

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How to Watch Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers Information
Teams Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Location American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Time Wednesday, May 18, 1:10  p.m. EST
How to watch Bally Sports South, Bally Sports Wisconsin
Image for Tony Garcia

AUTHOR

Tony Garcia

188 Articles

Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.

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