Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Predictions, Odds, Picks

• Solid pitching matchup to open the series
• Both teams inconsistent to start the season
• X-factors to watch

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Prediction and Picks

The Braves come off a World Series season while the Cubs are trying to continue to stay relevant in the playoff picture without rebuilding even after losing the core of their 2016 World Series team. Chicago on the season has outscored opponents by 19 runs, but that’s misleading considering it all happened because of a 21-0 win vs. Pittsburgh last week. Atlanta has been outscored by 14 runs, the fifth-worst mark in the NL. The Braves have the better pitcher on the mound and are back home, so we’re taking Atlanta Moneyline and the under.

Picks:

Atlanta to Win 

Under 8

Garcia’s 2021 record: (7-6)

Trends to Watch

• Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter
• Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 road games
• Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record
• Cubs are 21-43 in their last 64 games as a road underdog
• Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 games following an off day
• Cubs are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. National League East
• Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter
• Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 vs. a team with a losing record
• Under is 5-2 in Cubs last 7 road games
• Cubs are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta
• Over is 5-1 in the last 6 head-to-head meetings in Atlanta
• Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 games following an off day
• Braves are 10-4 in their last 14 vs. National League Central
• Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 overall
• Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series
• Under is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 overall
• Under is 8-3-1 in Braves last 12 games as a home favorite

Established Vet vs Rising Youngster in Pitching Matchup

Part of the way the Cubs thought they could stay in the thick of the NL Central race is by adding an established starter like Marcus Stroman – a guy who has had an ERA better than 3.10 in three of the past five seasons and a career WAR better than 15 across eight seasons entering the season. So far, that hasn’t worked out as they’d envisioned. Stroman has struggled through his three starts, posting an 0-2 record with an 8.78 ERA and 1.65 WHIP with 14 strikeouts. Stroman hasn’t made it out of the fifth in either of his past two outings, giving up a combined 12 earned runs on 14 hits in just 8.1 innings of work.

His main issue? Opponents are hitting,.333 against his sinker which is usually his “out” pitch while lefties as a whole are hitting .314. When he’s ahead of hitters, they’re batting just .188 but when he falls behind, they’re hitting .391. His location and whether or not he’s an apple to get ahead early will be telling.

Max Fried, on the other hand, seems to have righted the ship in a major way in his last outing.

After giving up seven earned runs in 10.1 innings over his first two starts, he was dominant against baseball’s best offense in the Dodgers. On the road, he threw seven shutout innings, giving up just two hits and no walks while striking out eight.

When he’s on his game, he’s one of the top pitchers in all of baseball.

Both Teams Looking For Consistency

The Cubs have won consecutive games just once this season. The Braves have done so only twice. Neither has had even three wins in a row at any point this season, while both teams are 2-5 in the past seven.

With that said, it should come as no surprise that Atlanta (7-10) and Chicago (7-9) have already fallen to third and fourth in their divisions respectively. If the Cubs are going to find that consistency they’re searching for, it’s going to start with a more reliable offense.

Outside of Saturday’s explosion when they scored an MLB-best 21 runs, they’ve scored three runs or fewer in four of five games. Atlanta, meanwhile, has to find a way to keep its opponent off the board. Atlanta has allowed 82 total runs this season, the fourth worst mark in all of baseball.

X-factors to Watch

So far this season, the x-factor for the Cubs has been Seiya Suzuki, the star they signed from Japan. He leads the team in average (.354), home runs (4), RBIs (13), OBP (.492) and hits (17).

Looking beyond just Suzuki, the person we’re watching in this game is Nico Hoerner. The shortstop has been red hot lately, getting eight hits in the past three games, which has raised his average to .327 with an .809 OPS.

For Atlanta, we’re watching Dansby Swanson, who on the flipside has been ice cold to open 2022. He’s hitting just .172 this season, but there are small signs he’s starting to heat up, reaching base in three straight games with a triple, a walk and two RBIs.

How to Watch Chicago vs Atlanta