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My Pick: Phillies -1.5
Both of these teams are fighting for positioning in the NL Wild Card race, making this a critical series. While we like what the Giants have done this season, the Phillies will have the edge tonight, thanks to the pitching matchup. Alex Cobb is having major struggles, and this Philly offense has put up double-digit win totals in two of their last four games. That will lead to a lopsided win for the Phillies, making this an easy bet.
The Giants have been one of the season's biggest surprises, but they have cooled off in the second half. Things have been especially bad in August, with a record of 6-12 so far. The team has not won a series since August 3, a run that includes an embarrassing two-game sweep at the hands of the A’s. Their schedule has been rough, but it seems clear that they are not the same team that they were back in July. They will struggle tonight in Philly, especially with Alex Cobb on the mound today.
Speaking of Cobb (6-5, 3.75 ERA), the 35-year-old has been bad in August. He owns a 7.59 ERA through four starts this month, making just one quality start against a floundering D-Backs team. It is hard to imagine things improving today, given Cobb’s 5.08 road ERA and 5.44 ERA in day games. Look for him to get into trouble early in this win, giving the Phillies a big cushion on their way to a victory.
As well as the Giants have played this season, their offense still ranks in the bottom ten of the league in most major categories. Instead, They have relied on their pitching and a scrappy lineup to win many low-scoring games. The lineup will be challenged today against a Phillies starter who has been one of the best in the league since July 1. Don’t expect to see them get many baserunners, leading to a straightforward cover of the run line this afternoon.
The Phillies have been moving in the opposite direction of the Giants in the second half of the season. The team currently owns the top NL Wild Card spot, two spots ahead of the Giants. The Phillies will have the advantage with tonight’s pitching matchup, but that isn’t all. They are 35-24 at home this season and 31-19 in day games. Both of those factors will be in play tonight, which gives them all the advantages they will need to get a big win today.
Michael Lorenzen (7-8, 3.57 ERA) made headlines with a no-hitter a couple of weeks ago, but he has been one of the best pitchers in the league since July 1. The veteran has a 2.25 ERA with a 5-2 record since then. Lorenzen was roughed up in his last outing, but it came against a Nationals team he had thrown a no-hitter against just a week ago, meaning they were looking for payback. We expect him to make another stellar start tonight, leading to his sixth win since the start of July.
The Phillies' offense is loaded with talent, and they have been hot in August. Their success has come with former MVP-favorite Trea Turner (7-8, 3.57 ERA) having a disappointing season. The shortstop is finally turning things around, with a .307 batting average and a .547 slugging percentage in August. His improvement will only boost the play of Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and Bryce Harper and lead to a big run total against a struggling Cobb tonight.
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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