After we hit on two of our four targets on Tuesday, we’re feeling confident about the rest of the week. In some ways, we’re taking a safe approach on Wednesday, picking out some obvious targets.
But we have good reason to believe that these players are going to come through for us and keep up our stretch of successful home run props.
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| Best Home Run Predictions Today | FanDuel Odds | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton Anytime Home Run | +280 | Minnesota Twins 58% |
| Colson Montgomery Anytime Home Run | +370 | Chicago White Sox 42% |
| Jo Adell Anytime Home Run | +360 | Los Angeles Angels 58% |
| Ozzie Albies Anytime Home Run | +730 | Atlanta Braves 57% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on.
Buxton ranks fourth in the big leagues in home runs right now with 17, which is the same as Aaron Judge, and he’s done it in fewer games than Judge. At the moment, he’s in a bit of a slump, going six straight games without a home run. However, Buxton has at least one hit in five of those six games, so he hasn’t gone completely cold and is bound to homer sooner rather than later.
On Wednesday, Buxton and the Twins face righty Erick Fedde. In his career, Buxton is just 1 for 4 against Fedde. But keep in mind, Fedde has allowed 13 home runs this season, more than any other pitcher getting the start on Wednesday. Of those 13 home runs, 11 have been hit by right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Buxton has hit 16 of his 17 home runs against right-handed pitchers, making this a great matchup for Buxton.
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Montgomery will be hoping that he can cancel out Buxton’s home run by hitting one himself against the Twins. Minnesota is sending Taj Bradley to the mound for Wednesday’s matinee, which is good news for Montgomery. He has two hits in five career at-bats against Bradley, and both hits are home runs.
Admittedly, it’s a small sample size, but it’s enough to back a player like Montgomery, who has 15 home runs on the season. Naturally, he’s hit for more power against right-handed pitchers, hitting 11 of his 15 home runs against them. For much of the season, Montgomery’s home runs have come in clusters, and with two home runs in his last four games, more could be on the way.
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On the surface, Adell probably isn’t worth the odds he’s getting to go deep on Wednesday. However, he and the Angels face Michael Lorenzen, and Adell’s track record against Lorenzen is too good to ignore. He’s 6 for 11 in his career against Lorenzen with two home runs. Even if that sample size is a little small, it speaks volumes.
Adell has a respectable nine home runs on the season, and while he typically mashes lefties, three of those home runs have come against right-handed pitchers. Equally important, Lorenzen has been problematic this season, with a 7.22 ERA. Things are only getting worse for him, as Lorenzen posted an 8.87 ERA in May, so a hitter with a great track record against him like Adell is the ideal target to take him deep.
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With these types of odds, Albies is always worth a flier when facing a left-handed pitcher. That’s even more true when that left-handed pitcher is Patrick Corbin. Albies has owned Corbin throughout his career, and it’s not been a small sample size. He’s 14 for 32 (.438) with seven extra-base hits, including three home runs, against Corbin.
To his credit, Corbin is somehow putting together a solid season for the Blue Jays, pitching to a 3.65 ERA. Yet, right-handed hitters are still getting to him at times. Meanwhile, the switch-hitting Albies is batting .297 and slugging .465 against lefties. He’s also 9 for 23 (.391) during his current six-game hitting streak, putting Albies in a groove ahead of a matchup against a pitcher he’s owned throughout his career.
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