Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: Battle of Two Teams Heading in Right Direction

• Hottest pitcher faces former Cy Young finalist
• Battle of two teams heading in right direction
• X-factors to watch

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Miami at Philadelphia Prediction and Picks

Sandy Alcantra has been putting up video game numbers for the better part of the month and has worked his way to the front of the NL Cy Young conversation. Aaron Nola has some damage control to do after starting the season slowly, but going 8+ innings in two of his last three starts goes a long way in doing so. Both teams are hot, but frankly, these pitchers are hotter. We like the under.

Garcia’s 2022 record: (19-12)

Miami at Philadelphia Trends to Watch (As of 6.12)

• Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss
• Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 overall
• Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League East
• Marlins are 22-47 in their last 69 games as an underdog
• Marlins are 25-58 in their last 83 road games
• Marlins are 1-4 in their last 5 Monday games
• Over is 6-1 in Marlins last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5
• Over is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 games as a road underdog
• Over is 8-2 in Marlins last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter
• Over is 4-1 in the last 5 head-to-head meetings
• Marlins are 5-1 in the last 6 head-to-head meetings
• Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter
• Phillies are 9-1 in their last 10 overall
• Phillies are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite
• Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 home games
• Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record
• Over is 8-1 in Phillies last 9 games as a home favorite
• Over is 16-5 in Phillies last 21 overall
• Under is 6-2 in Phillies last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record

Must See Pitching Matchup

If it were before the season and people saw the pitching matchup was between Aaron Nola and Sandy Alcantra, most would believe the Phillies had a moderate-to-significant advantage.

Well, that’s certainly not the case. Alcantra hasn’t just been the best pitcher on the Marlins, he’s been the best pitcher in all of baseball for the past month and is likely the NL Cy Young favorite as things stand now.

Here are Alcantra’s numbers on the season: 6-2 with a 1.61 ERA (2nd in MLB), 0.94 WHIP (T-7th), and 77 strikeouts (T-8th). Over the past six starts, he’s been on a whole other level, going seven innings or more and giving up one run or fewer in every outing.

During that stretch, he’s thrown 48 innings and given up just three runs, which is a 0.56 ERA. He’s also allowed just 24 hits and eight walks (0.66 WHIP) while striking out 46 batters. True video game numbers.

Nine of his last 11 starts have been quality starts and take out the one outing where he allowed five runs to the Mariners and he’s allowed just 10 earned runs in 78 innings.

On the other side, Nola isn’t too shabby himself. On the contrary, he’s been quite good.

His record (4-4) and ERA (3.50) don’t really do justice to the baserunners he’s been able to limit and the swing and miss stuff he still has. Nola’s WHIP (0.88) is third-best in baseball and his strikeouts (85) are fourth.

The Phillies have been playing better of late so they’ve won each of his past three starts – it certainly helps that in two of those starts he threw eight or more innings with just one run allowed – but prior to that Philadelphia was 0-8 in the previous eight times Nola toed the rubber.

Battle of Teams Trending Up

At the beginning of June, almost everybody had written off both the Phillies and the Marlins. Things got so bad in the city of brotherly love, they fired Joe Girardi, but really haven’t looked back since.

Yes, the Phillies got hammered by the Diamondbacks 13-1 on Sunday, but prior to that had won all nine games under interim manager Rob Thomson. Over that stretch the offense has been red hot, scoring 64 runs led by Bryce Harper who is 11-for-24 (.458) over the past week with three home runs and nine RBIs. Didi Gregorious, Rhys Hoskins, and Nick Castellanos are all hitting better than .318 during that stretch too with OBPs of .385 and up.

The Marlins are playing better as well, coming into play at 5-1 in their past six and 7-3 in their past 10. The team aired some grievances in a team meeting earlier this week and have been playing their best ball of the season since.

Jazz Chisholm has been all of it or none of it the past week – he 6-for-21 (.286) with 10 strikeouts but leads the team in that stretch with four home runs and nine RBIs.

X-factors to Watch

For Miami, we’re watching outfielder Garrett Cooper who’s been the best hitter on the team this year. Cooper leads the team in hits (58), batting average (.315), OBP (.389), and is 9-for-19 (.474) over the past week with two doubles and a home run.

For Philadelphia, we’re watching Odubel Hererra who’s hitting righties well this season. All five of his long balls have come off of right-handed pitching along with an .809 OPS.

How to Watch Marlins at Phillies