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San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves Predictions, Odds, Picks

Written by: Tony Garcia
Updated October 14, 2022
13 min read
  • Battle of the Aces
  • Both sides looking for consistency
  • X-factors to watch

Padres at Braves Odds

Padres At Braves Friday Picks

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Padres at Braves Prediction and Picks

The Braves come off a win, but they’ve only won consecutive games three times this year and are yet to win three in a row at any point. The Padres are coming off a loss, but they haven’t lost consecutive games since April 15-16. Runs should be at a premium, with Yu Darvish and Max Fried facing off. Both teams have won each of their last four games when their ace is on the mound, which is why we’re thinking this is going to be a low scoring affair. We like the under.

Under 7 (-105)

  • Padres are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss
  • Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series
  • Padres are 6-2 in their last 8 road games
  • Padres are 15-7 in their last 22 overall
  • Padres are 18-38 in their last 56 games as a road underdog
  • Padres are 2-7 in their last 9 games following an off day
  • Over is 7-1 in Padres last 8 road games
  • Over is 9-1 in Padres last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record
  • Over is 10-4 in Padres last 14 vs. a team with a losing record
  • Over is 11-5 in Padres last 16 overall
  • Braves are 13-5 in last 18 head-to-head meetings in Atlanta
  • Braves are 15-7 in their last 22 games following an off day
  • Braves are 15-7 in their last 22 home games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Braves are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a favorite
  • Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 games following a win
  • Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 vs. National League West
  • Over is 8-2-1 in Braves last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
  • Under is 10-4 in Braves last 14 games following an off day

Garcia’s 2021 record: (13-7)

Atlanta is 4-0 in Max Fried’s last four starts and 11-15 on the year when he doesn’t start. Fried lost each of his first two outings, but has been the lights out pitcher we’ve come to expect over the past four weeks.

During that stretch, Fried is 4-0 and has thrown four consecutive quality starts. In those game, he’s last 26 innings, giving up four hits or fewer in each game, allowed just one walk compared to 28 strikeouts.

On the season, he’s 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in 37 innings. Three of his wins have come against the three National League division leaders (Dodgers, Mets and Brewers) with the other coming against the Cubs, so the Padres shouldn’t present any challenge he can’t handle.

On the flipside, Darvish had one horrific start, but outside of that has been dominant. That outing against the Giants was his second start of the year, when he lasted just 1.2 innings and gave up a career-high nine runs.

In the other five outings, he has five quality starts, has given up just six total runs with 18 hits and eight walks in 25.2 innings.

On the year, he’s 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 28 strikeouts.

Search for Consistency Continues

For Braves fans, this season has to feel like two steps forward, one step back. Or maybe one step forward, one step back. The Braves have only won two games in a row three times this year. They’ve yet to string three or more victories together at any point.

But at the same time, Atlanta has yet to lose more than two games in a row at any point. The Braves have been consistently inconsistent, one might say.

The offense has been getting better of late and it’s no surprise it’s happened since Ronald Acuña Jr. came back from injury. The venezuelan outfielder has been on a tear, he’s 6-for-14 (.429) with a double, two home runs and three RBIs over the past week.

But at the same time, Austin Riley has started slumping. The power-hitting third baseman is just 6-for-35 (.171) in the month of April with one home run.

The Padres offense, even without shortstop sensation Fernando Tatis Jr., has been just fine. Manny Machado carried the load last week, going 11-for-24 (.458) with a double, two home runs and four RBIs. The Padres’ 137 runs scored are the 10th most in all of baseball.

X-factors to Watch

For San Diego, one bat that needs to get going is Trent Grisham. The slumping centerfielder is hitting just .144 this year with a .264 OBP in 104 at bats. Those numbers have been even worse against lefties, just 2-for-24 (.083 on the year).

Grisham is one of the Padres best base runners and when he gets on, the team scores runs. If he scores a run in this one, there’s a good chance San Diego wins.

On the flipside, nobody in Atlanta’s lineup has been better against right handed pitching than Orlando Arcia. The shortstop is hitting .500 (9-for-18) in those situations this year and comes off a three-hit game on Wednesday in Boston when he hit a home run and scored twice.

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How to Watch Padres at Braves

San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves Information
Teams San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
Location Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
Time Friday, May 13, 7:20  p.m. EST
How to watch Apple TV+
Image for Tony Garcia


Tony Garcia

180 Articles

Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.

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