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Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
|John Hunter Nemechek||+350|
John Hunter Nemechek to win the race at +350
Grant Enfinger to finish in the top three at +450
Ryan Preece to beat Zane Smith head-to-head at -120
Ty Majeski earned a spot in the final four with his Sept. 15 victory at Bristol Motor Speedway. Conversely, veteran John Hunter Nemechek fell below the current cut line, thanks to a 24th-place finish Oct. 1 at Talladega.
Nemechek can cure his precarious situation with a victory at Homestead, and we think he’ll do just that. Nemechek last raced at the 1.5-mile track in 2018 in family-owned equipment. Nevertheless, he has posted an average start of 7.5 there and an average finish of 8.8.
In Kyle Busch Motorsports Equipment, we expect Nemechek earn advancement to Championship 4 by winning the race. He’s a good bet as the favorite at +350 via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Admittedly, the sample size is small, but Christian Eckes has the best record among Playoff drivers at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
In two starts there for Kyle Busch Motorsports, Eckes recorded third- and eighth-place finishes. Now he’s driving the No. 98 Toyota for ThorSport Racing, whose Ty Majeski already has qualified for the Championship 4 race.
We think Eckes is a good bet to finish in the top three on Saturday, but there’s an issue—the price. Eckes is paying only +250 for a podium finish, and the risk isn’t worth the reward.
Instead, we like Grant Enfinger to finish in the top three at a more generous +450. Enfinger is highly motivated. Realistically, he needs a victory at Homestead to make the championship race.
In five starts at the track, he has recorded a top five, three top 10s and a pole. While we don’t think he’ll win on Saturday, we like Enfinger to run top-three.
Entering the event that will determine the four drivers who will race for the Truck Series title on Nov. 4 at Phoenix Raceway, defending series champion Ben Rhodes is above the cut line—just barely.
Rhodes will have to improve his performance at Homestead if he hopes to carry his title defense to Phoenix. In five starts at the track, his best finish is 10th and his average result 15.8.
Sad to say, we think Rhodes status as a +1500 long shot is justified, and we don’t expect him top make the cut for the final race.
A much better bet is non-Playoff driver Ryan Preece to beat championship contender Zane Smith head-to-head at -120.
In nine Truck Series starts this season, Preece has six top fives and eight top 10s, including a victory at Nashville. His worst finish is 11th at Charlotte. He’s a reliable frontrunner wherever he races.
|Race||Baptist Health 200 NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race|
|Time||Saturday, Oct. 22, 1 p.m. ET|
|How to Watch||FS1|
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]More info on Reid Spencer
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