Federated Auto Parts 400: Denny Hamlin Is the Master of His Hometown Track

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated October 14, 2022
4 min read
  • Hometown boy Denny Hamlin can frustrate Cup Series Playoff hopefuls.
  • Don’t expect an upset win at Richmond; this track favors established stars.
  • Ryan Blaney vs Martin Truex Jr. is huge—but there’s no betting prop for them.

Federated Auto Parts 400 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Winner Odds
Martin Truex Jr. +600
Denny Hamlin +600
Kyle Busch +700
Christopher Bell +900
Chase Elliott +900
Kyle Larson +1000
Ross Chastain +1200
Ryan Blaney +1200
Kevin Harvick +1500
Joey Logano +1500
William Byron +2000
Tyler Reddick +2000
Bubba Wallace +2000
Daniel Suarez +2500

Picks for the Federated Auto Parts 400

Denny Hamlin to win the race at +600

William Byron to run top-three (+550) and top five (+250)

Federated Auto Parts 400 Predictions

Federated Auto Parts 400 at the Brickyard Predictions

More Often Than Not, Denny Hamlin Is the Master of His Hometown Track

Denny Hamlin led just five of 400 laps in the spring race at Richmond Raceway last April, but he and crew chief Chris Gabehart parlayed pit strategy into Hamlin’s fourth career victory at his home track.

The driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has had a fast car all season, but a rash of penalties has prevented him from winning more than two races this year.

Last week’s race at Michigan was emblematic. Hamlin had the field covered, but a penalty for too many men over the wall on pit road prevented him from winning the race.

But Richmond is different. The track has special meaning to Hamlin, who grew up in nearby Chesterfield. Hamlin is adept at saving tires, and that comes in handy on the .75-mile short track.

The four Joe Gibbs Racing drivers are the top four choices for Sunday’s Federated Auto Parts 400, but we like Hamlin to prevail over his teammates at +600—and to frustrate teammate Martin Truex Jr., who is competing for the final NASCAR Cup Playoff spot.

Don’t Expect an Upset at Richmond; the Track Favors Established Stars

Scroll through the list of winners at Richmond Raceway, and you’ll find the elite of the NASCAR Cup series.

The .75-mile action track seldom if ever produces surprise winners. Those who triumph at Richmond are far more likely to be current or former champions than also-rans.

That’s why we’re looking for an established star to win on Saturday. That said, we like William Byron to run in the top three on Sunday.

The driver of the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet led 122 laps last April and was one of the drivers victimized by Hamlin’s solid strategy.

No, Byron hasn’t been in top form lately—his last top 10 came at Sonoma in June—but we think he’ll rally at Richmond with just three races left before the Playoffs begin.

Hence, we like his chances to run top-three (+550) and top-five (+250).

Truex vs Blaney Is Really the Main Event—But There’s No Prop to Bet

With three races left in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, there’s one spot left in the Playoff, and Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. are fighting for it. Neither driver has won a race this year.

Blaney currently leads Truex by 19 points for the final berth, and both drivers hope no one below them in the standings manages to win one of the next three races to steal the last position in the postseason.

Truex has won three of the last six races at Richmond, and Toyota drivers have won six of the last eight. But Hamlin has outrun Truex consistently this year.

Blaney led a race-high 128 laps at Richmond in April, only to be outdone by Hamlin’s late-race strategy.

While Truex and Blaney are paying attention to each other, Hamlin will win the race.

The only thing missing is a prop bet pitting Truex against Blaney head-to-head. Hard to believe the oddsmakers overlooked that one.

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How to Watch the Federated Auto Parts 400

Race Federated Auto Parts 400 NASCAR Cup Series race
Location Richmond Raceway
Time Sunday, August 14, 3 p.m. ET
How to Watch USA
21+ | Terms and conditions apply
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Image for Reid Spencer

Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

Betting Analyst
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Drama
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
48 years
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