Toyota Tundra 225 (Camping World Truck Series) Predictions, Odds & Picks

• Sheldon Creed broke up Toyota’s monopoly at Darlington and looks to win again.
• Based on his record, John Hunter Nemechek should be—and is—the favorite.
• Paul Menard returns to action as a wild card in the COTA betting pool. 

Toyota Tundra 225 Odds

Odds from PointsBet. Get up to four RISK FREE bets up to $1000 or check out more offers and promo codes for the best online sportsbooks.

After taking a week off while the NASCAR Cup Series and NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Dover, drivers in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series boldly go where no stock car has gone before—to the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas.

COTA is a huge road course at 3.41 miles. The 20-turn circuit features a net elevation change of 180 feet, particularly noticeable as the vehicles charge uphill into Turn 1, which is a challenging left-hand hairpin.

The Toyota Tundra 225 is the debut NASCAR event at the track and part of a Saturday doubleheader that also features the Pit Boss 250 Xfinity Series race. The EchoPark Texas Grand Prix for the Cup Series follows on Sunday.

Saturday’s Truck Series race will be contested over 41 laps (139.81 miles), with stage breaks planned after 12 and 26 laps.

How to Watch Toyota Tundra 225

After Breaking Toyota Streak, Sheldon Creed Looks for a Second Straight Win

On May 7 at Darlington Raceway, reigning NASCAR Camping World Truck Series champion Sheldon Creed ended Toyota’s monopoly on the competition this season.

Before Creed won the LiftKits4Less.com 200 at the Track Too Tough to tame, Toyota drivers had triumphed in the first seven events of the season. A single organization, Kyle Busch Motorsports, was riding a streak of five straight victories.

In giving Chevrolet its first win of the season, Creed re-established himself as a contender for a second title. Consider also that he finished second on the Daytona Road Course in the second race of the season—after winning there last year.

That’s why Creed has to be considered a solid choice to put his No. 2 GMS Racing Silverado in Victory Lane in the inaugural event at Circuit of the Americas.

Our only concern here is the price. At +350 according to PointsBet Sportsbook, you have to have substantial faith in Creed’s ability to risk a wager for a relatively modest return.

John Hunter Nemechek Is the Favorite at COTA This Weekend—Justifiably

For much of his NASCAR career, John Hunter Nemechek has overachieved in family-owned equipment. In fact, his 2016 Truck Series victory at the Canadian Tire Motorsports Park road course came in a NEMCO truck.

This season, Nemechek is driving arguably the best equipment in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series garage—the No. 4 Kyle Busch Motorsports Toyota.

Nemechek already has two victories this season, on the ovals at Las Vegas and Richmond. He has finished in the top 10 in seven of eight races and leads the series standings by 46 points over second-place Ben Rhodes.

At the Daytona Road Course in February, Nemechek led the first 14 laps, was shuffled to the back when his truck ran out of fuel, and rallied to finish third.

Given his obvious skills and the quality of his ride, Nemechek (+325) is the favorite to win Saturday’s race. We can’t disagree.

Cup Veteran Paul Menard Returns to Action as a Threat to Win on Saturday

Paul Menard hasn’t raced in a NASCAR national series event since the 2019 Cup Series season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway when he retired as a full-time competitor.

But the scion of the Menards Home Improvement empire will return to action in Saturday’s Toyota Tundra 225 at Circuit of the Americas.

Menard has never raced a truck on a road course. In fact, he has but six starts in the series over a career that spanned 14 years, his last event dating to 2007.

But Menard has a win in the Cup Series—the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. His last national series win came on a road course in an Xfinity Series race at Road America in his home state of Wisconsin.

Menard also is driving top-notch equipment on Saturday in the form of the No. 66 Toyota fielded by ThorSport Racing. ThorSport’s Ben Rhodes won the first road course race of the season at Daytona.

Clearly, Menard deserves respect, and he’s getting it. PointsBet Sportsbook has him posted at +1200, tied for the fourth choice with teammate Matt Crafton and fellow Toyota driver Austin Hill.

If you’re inclined to steer clear of the favorites, Menard is a strong choice at a good price.