ToyotaCare 250 (Xfinity Series) Predictions, Odds & Picks

• JR Motorsports vs. Joe Gibbs Racing: Who has the upper hand at Richmond?
• Austin Hill is a great long-shot pick. Place your bets before Saturday’s qualifying.
• If you’re looking to take a flier, Jeb Burton may be the right driver for you.

ToyotaCare 250 Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

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From a 3.41-mile road course at Circuit of the Americas, the NASCAR Xfinity Series turns to a .75-mile short track at Richmond Raceway for Saturday’s ToyotaCare 250, the seventh event of the 2022 season.

The Xfinity Series race will be contested over 250 laps (187.5 miles), with stage breaks scheduled after 75 and 150 laps. Noah Gragson is the defending winner of the race. Gragson and JR Motorsports teammate Justin Allgaier are the only two former Richmond winners in the field.

This event is the first of four Dash 4 Cash races in the series. The top finisher among four eligible drivers—Gragson, AJ Allmendinger, Austin Hill and Sam Mayer—will pocket a $100,000 bonus.

Jr Motorsports vs Joe Gibbs Racing: Who Has the Edge This Weekend?

Two NASCAR Xfinity Series organizations, JR Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing, have combined to win six of the last seven events at Richmond Raceway, splitting the spoils with three victories each.

There’s one major factor separating JRM from JGR. With Justin Allgaier sweeping the Richmond doubleheader in 2020 and Noah Gragson winning the only race last year, JR Motorsports has taken the checkered flag in the last three races at the .75-mile track.

Christopher Bell won all three races for Gibbs, sweeping both 2018 events and prevailing in the fall race of 2019. But Bell has graduated to the NASCAR Cup Series and won’t be competing in Saturday’s Xfinity race.

Racing for Gibbs this week are co-favorites Ty Gibbs and John Hunter Nemechek (+550 via DraftKings Sportsbook). Gibbs is the only driver with two victories in the first six races this season.

It’s a close call, but we like Allgaier (+650) for the win this week over Gragson (+550). The driver of the No. 7 JRM Chevrolet has finished fourth or better in his last five Richmond starts, including his two victories in 2020. This type of track is ideally suited to the veteran driver’s talents.

Despite Inexperience, Austin Hill Is an Excellent Long-Shot Pick

Austin Hill has 21 NASCAR Xfinity Series starts to his credit—none at Richmond Raceway. Both his Truck Series starts at Richmond, however, resulted in top 10s, an eighth in 2020 and a 10th last year.

Don’t underestimate the driver of the No. 21 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet. Hill won the Xfinity season opener at Daytona International Speedway. In his two most recent races he was second at both Atlanta and Circuit of the Americas.

So when we saw that Hill had opened at +3000 to win on DraftKings, we thought he was absurdly undervalued. We advise betting on Hill across the board—to win, to finish in the top three (+800) and top five (+350)—before the odds adjust, which they almost certainly will after Saturday morning’s practice and qualifying.

Hill also has an extra incentive. He’s one of four drivers eligible for the $100,000 Dash 4 Cash bonus, which he can claim by finishing ahead of the other three.

For an Even Longer Shot, Take a Close Look at Jeb Burton

Last week, we were enthusiastic in our recommendation of road course ace and race favorite AJ Allmendinger, and he came through with a victory at Circuit of the Americas.

This week, we’re at the opposite end of the spectrum with extreme long shot Jeb Burton, who opened at +10000 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

We’re not saying Burton will win the race, but in his last two Xfinity starts at Richmond, Burton finished second with JR Motorsports in 2020 and 10th with Kaulig Racing last year.

Burton is driving the No. 27 Chevrolet for Our Motorsports this season. The equipment is above average, and Burton has veteran crew chief Chad Walter on the pit box. Based on his recent record, we think Burton is a decent bet to finish in the top five at +1200 via DraftKings.

How to Watch ToyotaCare 250