NBA Player Props Today: Thunder vs. Spurs Game 4

A pivotal Game 4 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs is on the horizon, and I have my best player prop picks and bets locked and loaded for today.

The Thunder took Games 2 and 3 to jump out to a 2-1 series lead, putting all of the pressure on the Spurs to win in front of their home fans for the first time this series. Falling into a 3-1 hole is effectively a kiss of death, and the Thunder have a taste of winning after last year’s championship.

Even still, the Spurs are favored by two and a half points ahead of tonight’s matchup. They also didn’t lose three straight games all year.

Let’s jump into my best Game 4 Thunder vs. Spurs player prop picks and bets today for Sunday, May 24.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday, May 24

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Victor Wembanyama over 24.5 points (-122) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Wembanyama scored 41, 21, and 26 points in three games in this series on 54/43/88 shooting splits. However, he does not appear to have a consistent go-to move that he can use to get himself going, or to bail his team out of bad offensive possessions, leading him to go through stretches of inactivity on the offensive end.

While that is a concern, Wembanyama will also be very aware of the perils of falling into a 3-1 deficit. He took 18.7 field goals per game in this series, and I believe that we could see even more tonight, putting him in a great position to cash the over.

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Alex Caruso under 1.5 threes (+148) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Caruso has been the Thunder’s second-best player in this series, having averaged 21 points per game on 61/61/69 shooting splits. He also made at least three threes in every game, including an 8-14 eruption in Game 1, but I am calling an all-time fade ahead of tonight’s showdown.

There are two major things working to the advantage of this pick: first, Caruso only made 0.9 threes per game on 29.3 percent shooting during the regular season, and second, he killed the Spurs from the perimeter and might inspire a new defensive coverage. With regression to the mean and increased attention from the defense both being strong possibilities tonight, I love the value of the under. 

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De’Aaron Fox under 1.5 threes (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Fox has many desirable qualities in an NBA point guard, but three-point marksmanship is not one of them. He just went 1-6 from deep in Game 3 and cashed the under in seven of 12 games while shooting 32.8 percent from deep in the playoffs up to this point.

These numbers aren’t outliers, as he only made 1.8 threes per game on 33.2 percent during the regular season. I’m not entirely sure how many shot opportunities he’ll even get because of his ankle, not to mention that the Thunder have some of the best on-ball defenders in the entire league.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 3.5 rebounds (+118) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Gilgeous-Alexander has found himself far removed from the absolute bloodbaths that have defined the rebounding battle in this series. His game logs of three, four and two rebounds in the series show that he is more than fine waiting on the wing for his team to either gain or lose possession, and he will not be entering the battle underneath the rim.

The back-to-back MVP went under in six of his last eight games, and he’s a worse rebounder than essentially everyone that the Spurs put on the court. The positive odds are attractive, and there’s no reason to expect a sudden increase in activity on the glass.

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Dylan Harper under 2.5 assists (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Spurs missed Harper’s ability to create offense for the team down the stretch in Game 2, yet even when he played in Game 3, he didn’t have the desired effect. Getting trapped at halfcourt and weaving into traffic in the lane without a clear plan resulted in him only getting 17 minutes of action in the loss.

While Harper can still be dynamic as a scorer, there’s an element of playoff inexperience and simple NBA inexperience, showing with how he chooses to attack some of the coverages he’s seen. His assists total dropped from six to three to two over the course of the series, and if Fox can stay upright, I see a low assist night for him again.

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