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Cavaliers vs. Celtics Game Five Prediction: C's Going for Gentleman's Sweep

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Published May 15, 2024
12 min read

The Boston Celtics are back home with a chance to close out the Cleveland Cavaliers and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the sixth time in eight years.

The Celtics are a daunting -130 favorites to win the NBA Finals, showing the oddsmakers extreme belief in them and their team. They’ve been on the precipice of breaking through for years but still haven’t accomplished their greatest goal since 2008.

The Cavs gave Boston all it could handle in Game Four even without Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen available to play. They lost by just seven points and were right there with a shot to win in the final minutes of the game before they ultimately filed to level the series at two games apiece.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for Game Five of the Cavaliers vs. Celtics series.

Cavaliers vs Celtics 2024 05 15

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Game Five Betting Odds for Wednesday, May 15

The Celtics are 47-39-5 (54.7 percent) against the spread and 25-19-2 (56.8 percent) ATS as a home favorite. They covered in Games 1 and 3, both blowout victories, and are 5-3 ATS in the postseason (2-2 in the series).

The Cavs are 43-48-2 (47.3 percent) ATS and 11-15 (42.3 percent) ATS as a road underdog. They covered in four of their seven meetings with the Celtics across the regular and postseason and are 5-6 ATS in the playoffs.

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Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Cleveland Cavaliers +14.5 (-110) +775 Over 205.5 (-110)
Boston Celtics -14.5 (-110) -1400 Under 205.5 (-110)

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Cavaliers vs. Celtics Game Five Prediction

Cleveland Cavaliers Preview

The Cavaliers acquitted themselves well in Game Four even without Mitchell in the lineup. Up to that point, Mitchell had been the only Cavalier who really tried to score aggressively going back to the middle of their first-round series with the Orlando Magic.

Mitchell averaged 3.5 points over his last six games and scored at least 29 in three games against Boston in the series. He is questionable ahead of Game Five with the same calf problem that held him out of Game Four.

One of the most remarkable developments in Game Four was that the Cavs, who shot just 30.6 percent from three in the playoffs (and were even worse without Mitchell) managed to win the three-point battle with Boston, who led the league in threes made per game. That’s despite Caris LeVert going 1-8 from deep as he started in place of Mitchell.

The Cavs’ defense hasn’t been bad but also hasn’t been as elite as it needs to be for them to have a chance in the series. A lot of that goes back to Allen’s injury, as they’ve been forced to downsize and lost an all-defensive team contender.

Game Five has Cleveland in an unforgiving position. They have an average point differential per 100 possessions -15.5 in the playoffs and were 3.5 points per 100 possessions worse on the road than they were in their building during the regular season.

The potential absence of Mitchell will add to their list of obstacles to extend the series to a sixth game.

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Boston Celtics Preview

The Celtics still appear as if they really haven’t even started trying yet. While they have one of the easiest paths to the finals in recent memory, they’ve also displayed unrelenting dominance since the regular season began and are reaping the rewards of their consistently elite play. 

Boston ranks third in offensive and defensive efficiency in the postseason with a league-leading net rating of +12.2. They also have the highest rebound rate amongst all playoff teams and have been great against the Cavs who, again, are reeling from their sudden decrease in size.

Jayson Tatum finally snapped out of his slump a few days ago and posted back-to-back games of 33 points, both in wins. Derrick White went cold shooting the ball around the same time, but Jaylen Brown has remained the team’s most consistent performer of the postseason.

Boston was outstanding at home all year but has had its issues at TD Garden over its last few playoff runs. They’re 40-6 in their building since the start of the season and, after losing a home Game 2 in the first round just as they did against the Cavs, won Game Five by 34 points.

There’s little doubt that Boston should and will, in all likelihood, win this game. The question is if they are dominant enough to cover a 14.5-point line, particularly if Mitchell does end up playing.

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Cavaliers vs. Celtics Game Five Betting Pick

There are several key factors at play. Firstly, the health of Mitchell, secondly, the performances of the Cavaliers’ role players with or without him on the floor, and third, the battle at the three-point line.

Cleveland doesn’t have the defensive pieces to shut down Boston and must keep up in the scoring department. That puts pressure on Darius Garland (16.1 points, 5.5 assists in the playoffs) to step up and for players such as Max Strus to knock down their open looks.

We ultimately believe that the Celtics are more likely than not to cover the spread, regardless of how large the line is. They’re dominant on both ends and, with any ounce of luck, should be able to blend a strong shooting night from White with another high-scoring game from Tatum.

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Game Five

  • When: Wednesday, May 15 at 7:00 p.m. ET

  • Where: TD Garden, Boston, MA

  • TV: TNT

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AUTHOR

Grant Mitchell

528 Articles

Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.

In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.

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