Celtics vs. Thunder Predictions: Two of the NBA’s Best Clash

The Boston Celtics (26-6) are taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder (22-9) Tuesday in a matchup between top-two seeds from opposite conferences.

The C’s are the odds-on NBA Finals favorites and won 11 of their last 12 games, though they’re only 10-6 on the road. The Thunder, meanwhile, won seven of eight and are trying to prove that they’re more than a team that arrived ahead of schedule, and are instead a bonafide championship contender. 

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite picks for the Celtics vs. Thunder matchup on Tuesday evening.

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Celtics vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Tuesday, Jan. 2

The Celtics are 3.5-point favorites on the road in the first of two meetings between these two opponents.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code for a $1,500 welcome bonus.

The Celtics are overwhelmingly dominant in nearly every major category, whether that be offense, defense, or rebounding. They also have the league’s individual leader in net rating (Derrick White) leading a group of role players, plus the league’s third-best bench (+3.7 net rating).

The key to Boston’s offensive success is their ability to get up three-point shots. Although they can fall in love with contested shots, they take and make more triples than any team in the league, leading to them boasting the second-best offensive rating.

Teams have found mild success hounding the three-point line and allowing Jayson Tatum, Jalyen Brown, and the other ball-handlers to go one-on-one and attack the rim if they choose to. This led to them taking 44 threes per game (more than their season average of 42.9) while shooting just 29.5% in their six losses.

If there is one area of concern to point to for the Celtics, it is their late-game execution. They fall from 10th to 19th in assist-to-turnover ratio and dead last in pace during clutch situations (game within five points during the final five minutes). They also shoot 33.3% from beyond the arc during this time, 4.1 percent worse than their overall average.

Boston faced issues on the road earlier in the year but beat the Sacramento Kings, Los Angeles Clippers, and Los Angeles Lakers away from home within the last two weeks. They also have the third-best road net rating and are fully healthy heading into Tuesday’s showdown.

The Thunder put the league on notice last year by making the Play-In Tournament, but even the strongest of believers would have struggled to believe they’d play such elite basketball with their young and inexperienced roster.

OKC is third in net rating and excels defensively, whether that be points in the paint allowed (second), fastbreak points allowed (second), three-point defense (10th in percentage), or overall defensive rating (second). They’re also second in combined steals and blocks per game, trailing only the Philadelphia 76ers.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is arguably the most impactful two-way player in the league. He’s third in scoring (31.2 points per night) and leads the league in steals (2.6 per game) while shooting a very efficient 54.6% from the field.

The Thunder are also great in the reserves (second in bench net rating) and can put away teams late in games. Their primary area of concern is on the glass since they’re only 29th in rebound rate. 

Their lack of size allows them to switch multiple positions defensively but also gives them reason to consider exploring a trade for more size, especially since defensive rebounding becomes more important during the postseason. 

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Celtics vs. Thunder Prediction and Betting Pick

This game is tough to call. Boston and OKC are at or near the top in a ton of different metrics, have no rivalry factor, are both healthy and rarely see one another.

This high-stakes clash carries significant weight for those tracking the latest NBA Eastern Conference odds, as the Celtics look to solidify their status as the frontrunners of the East against one of the West's most elite squads. While the Thunder have been dominant at home with a 13-5 record, the Celtics have recently secured several impressive road wins and are playing at an incredibly high level.

However, given that OKC is on a winning streak and holds an 8-1 record against the Eastern Conference, their efficiency is hard to ignore. Since the Thunder currently lead the league in three-point shooting at 39.1% and complement it with elite defense, we like them to cover the points at home.

• Celtics vs. Thunder pick: Thunder +3.5 at BetMGM

How to Watch Celtics vs. Thunder

• When: Tuesday, Jan. 2 @ 7:00/8:00 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

• TV: NBA League Pass

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