Nuggets vs Heat Game 5 Odds: The Closeout Game

• The Nuggets won Game 4 108-95 and lead the series 3-1
• Only one team in NBA history (2016 Cleveland Cavaliers) has come back from 3-1 down in the Finals
• Miami won the most recent game in Denver (Game 2)

The Denver Nuggets are one win away from their first championship in franchise history and have a chance to close the deal at home Monday when they take on the Miami Heat in Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

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Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 Odds

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

What Happened in Game 4?

The Heat came out with an aggressive defensive strategy in Game 4. They doubled Nikola Jokic in the post on the first two possessions and also regularly blitzed Jamal Murray whenever he was in the pick-and-roll to force the ball out of his hand. Jimmy Butler also took charge of Miami’s offense and regularly hunted a switch onto Murray, who he then took into the post and used his size and strength advantages to rise over the top.

The success of that aggression was only short-lived, however, as the Heat won the first quarter by a point but went into halftime down four. Aaron Gordon was particularly impressive and exploited mismatches throughout the second quarter en route to his best game of the Finals. The third quarter was where Denver really opened the game up with its free-flowing offense and kept Miami on its heels, and ultimately secured a 13-point lead.

Miami managed to get Nikola Jokic to draw his fifth foul with 9:23 in the fourth quarter, which sent him straight to the bench. They soon closed the lead to five, only for Murray to hit a momentous three, and for Jokic to check back in a couple of minutes later. The Nuggets then executed down the stretch as they had nearly every game before and walked away with a comfortable win.

Key Stats from Game 4

Gordon was the Nuggets’ leading scorer and the most influential player with 27 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and a game-high +29. Jokic and Murray combined to shoot just 13-36 from the field but had high marks of 23 points (Jokic) and 12 assists with no turnovers (Murray). Bruce Brown also provided a huge spark off the bench with 21 points, including 11 in the fourth quarter.

For Miami, Butler had a solid 25 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists, but did not make the impact plays when his team needed them to go on a run or to curtail one of Denver’s. Bam Adebayo had a decent 20 points and 11 rebounds but had seven turnovers to boot. The Heat shot just 32% from three and only made eight triples.

One of the biggest talking points from Game 4 was Denver’s defensive activity. They won the turnover battle 14-6 largely because of their active hands and ability to force tons of strips, tips, deflections, and kick balls, which prevented Miami from gathering any sort of momentum playing downhill. 

Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 Preview

The Heat are running out of buttons to push. They switched from starting Caleb Martin back to Kevin Love and have tried every defensive approach they can think of for Murray and Jokic, whether that be zone, man, blitzing the pick and roll, doubling the post, switching, or hard hedging, and none of it has limited their influence on the series.

While Miami did win the last time the teams faced off in Denver, they just dropped both games on their home court. The Nuggets also went 34-7 at home during the regular season and have only lost one time at mile-high in the postseason, the aforementioned Game 2. 

The opening theme of the series was that the Nuggets had more talent, and Miami needed to outwork them and play smarter basketball than them to win the series. They have not consistently held up their end of the bargain and are staring down the barrel of a gentleman's sweep and their second Finals loss in the last four years.  

How Do the Nuggets Win?

The Nuggets will win with more of the same. They have gotten the job done with their stars and their role players, with offense and defense, and at home and on the road. There are no real adjustments they have to make, they just have to execute for 48 minutes of play to become champions for the first time.

How Do the Heat Win?

The Heat’s best path to victory will be from taking and making more three-pointers—that’s easier said than done, however, because Denver has done a great job crowding the three-point line without compromising their presence on the defensive glass. A signature Jimmy Butler game would also be a huge help to a team that is severely behind in the “star-for-star” matchup.

Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 Pick

The best bet for Game 5 is the Nuggets at -9, and a great game prop is over the fourth-quarter points total of 50.5. We expect Denver to be up by somewhere around eight points coming into the finish line, at which time the Heat will start fouling and sending them to the free-throw line. Denver will also ease up on defense to avoid committing dumb fouls, which will lead to an increase in points.

How to Watch Heat vs Nuggets Game 5

• Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• When: Monday, June 12, 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
• Streaming: YouTube TV, Hulu, Sling, etc.