Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Picks, Predictions and Odds: Back the Cowboys to Keep Their Big 12 Hopes Alive

• Both Oklahoma State and Kansas State are 0-1 in Big 12 conference play

• Star running back Ollie Gordon II is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season

• Kansas State’s secondary ranks below the league average in Def Pass Success Rate and PPA

With Oklahoma State and Kansas State starting conference play 0-1, this Saturday’s contest between the two brings a higher sense of urgency as the loser is most likely eliminated from being able to make the Big 12 Conference Championship. Especially with Utah holding the tiebreaker over the Cowboys, putting them in a must-win situation before falling too far down the standings.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Odds 

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Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Pick

• My Pick: Oklahoma State +5 (-110) at Caesars

While the Cowboys looked flat for the majority of their contest against Utah, Kansas State looked even worse in an embarrassing loss to the BYU Cougars. Not only did the Wildcats secondary continue to struggle in coverage, their own pass attack also failed to generate any sort of consistent production to stay within scoring pace. Expect a similar game script against the Cowboys as Oklahoma State grades out well in Pass Success Rate while their defense is capable of slowing down the Wildcats offense in the middle of the field.

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Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Predictions 

Oklahoma State Predictions

It has been an odd start to the year for Oklahoma State’s offense as it was widely expected they would lean on their preseason Heisman Award candidate Ollie Gordon II legs to help generate offensive production. That has yet to be the case four games into the year as Oklahoma State’s Rush Play Rate ranks 101st while their Pass Play Rate clocks in at 35th. Fortunately for the Cowboys, their tendency to throw the ball at a higher rate has panned out as the Cowboys rank top-30 in Pass Success Rate and PPA.

Quarterback Alan Bowman and the Cowboys' pass catchers should be able to find success through the air once again as the Wildcats' secondary has struggled mightily in coverage. Heading into this weekend’s contest against the Cowboys, the Wildcats secondary ranks 74th in Def Pass Success Rate, 102nd in Def Pass PPA, and 115th in Def Pass Explosiveness.

Not only is the Cowboys' offense in a position to consistently move the ball down the field through the air, their pass attack will also help open up rushing lanes for star running back Ollie Gordon II to exploit. Getting their ground going is vital for their success as it creates added stress to the Wildcats' back end. When scrambling to defend both the run and the pass, the Wildcats' impressive marks in Def Rush Success Rate and PPA are prone to regress.

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Kansas State Predictions

With the Wildcats' defense in a position to struggle, it will be on the backs of their offense to stay within the Cowboys' scoring pace. That spells potential disaster as their ground game continues to receive minimal support from their pass attack as Kansas State ranks below league average in Pass Success Rate, PPA, and Finishing Drives. Avery Johnson has also struggled with taking care of the ball as he has thrown three interceptions against low-quality defenses.

With no threat of getting beat through the air, the Cowboys' defense can afford to stack the box at a higher rate in an attempt to slow down the Wildcats' elite rush attack. Heading into this weekend’s massive Big 12 matchup, the Cowboys front seven ranks 56th in Def Rush Success Rate and 74th in Def Rush PPA while the Wildcats ground game ranks top-25 in Rush Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness.

With the Wildcats ground game expected to slow down against a stacked box, Kansas State’s offense will be prone to stalling out and struggling to stay within the Cowboys scoring pace. Factor in a defense that is ill-equipped to slow down the Cowboys revamped pass attack and the Wildcats may find themselves comfortably behind on the scoreboard for the second week in a row. Bet the Cowboys to cover the spread at no lower than +4.

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Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State How to Watch

• When: Saturday, September 28 at noon ET

• Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kansas

• Where to Watch: ESPN

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Injuries

Oklahoma State Injuries

• LB Collin Oliver - Out

• OL Jake Springfield - Questionable

Kansas State Injuries

• N/A