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BYU vs. Kansas Prediction: Jayhawks Hope to Remain Undefeated at Home Against BYU

Written by: Andrew Norton
Published February 27, 2024
10 min read

Two Big 12 titans, the Kansas Jayhawks (21-6, 9-5 in Big 12) and BYU Cougars (19-8, 7-7 in Big 12), clash in a conference matchup on Tuesday night. Kansas is two games back of the Houston Cougars for first place in the Big 12 with just four games left in the regular season, likely making the gap too wide to overcome; however, the Jayhawks can improve their standing in the conference for Big 12 tournament and NCAA Tournament seeding.

BYU is also a safe bet to make the NCAA Tournament with an at-large bid, as it is currently projected as a No. 6 seed. Securing a few more key wins, including this game at Allen Fieldhouse against the Jayhawks, could help propel the Cougars even higher. Find our BYU vs. Kansas Jayhawks prediction, betting odds, and analysis below for a complete breakdown of this Big 12 bout!

BYU Cougars vs Kansas Jayhawks Prediction

BYU Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks Betting Odds for Tuesday, Feb. 27

On Tuesday night, the Kansas Jayhawks are seven-point home favorites at Allen Fieldhouse against the BYU Cougars, who are unranked for the first time since November. Kansas has a 7-6-1 record against the spread at Allen. Meanwhile, the Cougs are merely 1-7 ATS on the road, having secured only two wins this season away from their home floor. 

The point total floats around 153 points, with -110 odds for both the Over and the Under. The Jayhawks have an Over record of 12-14-1, while BYU boasts a 13-14 Over record.

The Moneyline odds for Kansas and BYU were not made available when this article was written.

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
BYU Cougars +7 (-108) N/A Over 153 (-110)
Kansas Jayhawks -7 (-112) N/A Under 153 (-110)

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BYU Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks Preview

The Kansas Jayhawks enter this Big 12 matchup against BYU two games behind the first-ranked Houston Cougars in the conference standings; it does not seem very plausible for Kansas to get back into that picture with just four conference games left in the regular season, but the Jayhawks could at least get a better seeding for the Big 12 tournament. 

From 2005 until 2017, the Kansas Jayhawks won every Big 12 regular season title; they also won the Big 12 Conference tournament in seven of those seasons, too. Only a few teams in college basketball history have had a stranglehold over their conference like the Jayhawks have had in the past two decades. However, the Big 12 has improved exponentially in the last handful of seasons, proving to be the most competitive conference in the nation.

This season, Kansas has been dominant again and is one of only 17 teams with an undefeated home record. That number shrinks to ten if a criterion of at least 14 home games played is added. And it makes sense, as Allen Fieldhouse is one of the most challenging venues to win in as a road team in college basketball. Beyond the considerable huge home-court advantage that Kansas has in Lawrence, the Jayhawks also have a loaded roster, featuring portal addition and elite two-way big man Hunter Dickinson, Kevin McCullar Jr., Dajuan Harris Jr., K.J. Adams Jr., Johnny Furphy, Elmarko Jackson, Nicholas Timberlake, and Parker Braun.

Head coach Bill Self does not like to play more than seven or eight players in his rotations, but he might be forced to dig a little deeper into the bench since Kevin McCullar Jr. is out with a bone bruise injury. He is not expected to be back for this game against the BYU Cougars, which could cause problems if Furphy, Timberlake, or Adams don’t step up offensively.

Meanwhile, it has been a successful season for the BYU Cougars, holding a 19-8 record overall and a 7-7 record in the Big 12, which is not too shabby for their first season in the most challenging conference in the country; however, the Cougs have struggled mightily on the road, logging merely two wins, which were against two of the bottom three teams in the league.

BYU’s bread and butter this season has been its well-balanced offensive attack, with seven players (Jaxson Robinson, Trevin Knell, Spencer Johnson, Noah Waterman, Fousseyni Traore, Richie Saunders, and Dallin Hall) averaging between roughly nine and 14 points per game. Another evident strength for the Cougars is their rebounding ability, which should make plenty of sense considering their exceptional height at every position; they rank fifth in defensive rebounding percentage and 33rd in offensive rebounding percentage this season.

The Cougars have the talent and size to compete in a league like the Big 12, but their play on the road is concerning. Can they cover a seven-point spread against this Kansas team that will be without one of their best players, Kevin McCullar Jr.?

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BYU Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks Prediction and Betting Pick

BYU has been one of the worst road teams against the spread in the nation, covering only once in eight games away from the Marriott Center. Only four D-I teams have a worse ATS record than the Cougs on the road; it is mindboggling how poor this team is the second they step foot on a different floor. BYU’s 2-6 road record is bolstered by wins against West Virginia and UCF, two of the three worst teams in the Big 12. 

Let’s dive deeper into the Cougars’ road troubles. While they shoot 4.4% lower from the field and 3.9% lower from behind the arc away from Marriott, their slightly worse shooting split is not necessarily the cause of the problem. In fact, it is on the defensive end of the floor where the Cougars fall apart on the road, allowing opponents to score 8.8 more points per game on an effective field goal percentage that is 6% higher. 

Further, look at BYU’s recent road performances: the Cougars lost by ten points to Kansas State, ten to Oklahoma State, and 16 to Oklahoma in their past three road games. They didn’t come close to winning any of these games against opponents who are far less talented than Kansas in far less hostile environments than Allen Fieldhouse. 

Kansas should grab a convincing win at home here, even without Kevin McCullar Jr., the senior guard who has been fantastic this season (19.0 ppg, 6.4 rpg, and 4.4 apg.) The Jayhawks have gotten improved play from Johhny Furphy, the 6-foot-9 freshman, and senior Nicholas Timberlake, who has scored in double-digits in two of his past three outings.

BYU is a solid rebounding team due to its size, but it cannot match the Jayhawks’ physicality.

How to Watch BYU Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks

  • When: Tuesday, Feb. 27 @ 5:00/8:00 p.m. PT/ET

  • Where: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS

  • TV: ESPN+

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AUTHOR

Andrew Norton

148 Articles

Andrew has always been an avid sports fan and followed his hoop dreams all the way to college. He’s well-versed in everything betting with multiple years of experience and is qualitatively and quantitatively knowledgeable in sports statistics and analytics.

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