Texas vs. Texas Tech Prediction: Battle for Big 12 Bragging Rights

Written by: Tanner Kern
Published February 27, 2024
5 min read

On Tuesday, the Texas Longhorns will make the six-hour trip from Austin to Lubbock to battle the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Both teams are looking to make their case for an NCAA Tournament bid, and a win over their counterpart would help improve their bracket resume. 

This will be the second meeting of the season between the Texas foes. The Red Raiders beat the Longhorns in Austin 78-67 on January 9. Each team has significantly improved since this matchup, which should make Tuesday’s contest very competitive. 

The opening tip is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET and the game will be broadcast on ESPN. Here, we will break down our best bets for the action and preview the matchup.

Texas Longhorns vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction

Texas vs. Texas Tech Betting Odds for Tuesday, Feb. 27th 

The Longhorns aren’t as talented as the Red Raiders from top to bottom. However, they should be able to keep this matchup competitive based on the spread. 

Texas Tech is -4.5 and -190 on the moneyline. If you believe in the Longhorns, they’re priced at +160 on the moneyline. Both teams are two of the worst in the Big 12 against the spread. 

Texas Tech is 11-15-1 ATS, while Texas is 9-18. These teams have won games, but they haven’t dominated consistently. 

The total is listed at 144.5 for Tuesday’s game. The Red Raiders are the best over team in the conference, with a 17-10 record. The Longhorns are 15-12 to the over, which is fourth in the Big 12

Teams Spread Moneyline Total 
Texas Longhorns +4.5 (-115) +160 Over 144.5 (-110)
Texas Tech Red Raiders  -4.5 (-105) -190 Under 144.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets if you wager $5 on your first bet and win.

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Texas vs. Texas Tech Prediction

The ESPN matchup predictor gives Texas Tech a 68.2% chance to win on Tuesday. However, both teams are relatively even in the traditional statistical comparison for the game. 

The Red Raiders score 76 points per game, while Texas is at 75. On defense, each team allows under 69 points per game, creating chaos on that side of the floor. 

The Longhorns are coming up with seven steals per game compared to Texas Tech at 5.9. You can’t get closer to traditional statistics than Texas and Texas Tech. They also come into this game with similar momentum based on recent results. 

Each team is looking to respond following a loss and has won just one of their past three games. To break down this Big 12 battle, you must dive deep into the KenPom Ratings. KenPom is our primary source for making our betting picks at WSN. 

Offense is critical in college basketball, but it constantly fluctuates. Texas Tech is slightly more efficient on offense than Texas, but the gap isn’t massive. The Red Raiders are 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency, holding a ten-spot lead over the Longhorns.

However, Texas has the edge in adjusted defensive efficiency. They rank 55th compared to Texas Tech at 71st. While the Longhorns must travel to Lubbock, they have the defense to stay competitive as visitors. 

It’s very hard to beat a team twice in the same season, especially an in-state rival, so there should be an extra intensity on display for Texas. The player who needs to get the momentum started for the Longhorns is senior guard Max Abmas. 

Abmas averages 16.5 points per game with 3.1 rebounds and 4.3 assists. His shooting percentage isn’t significant at 42.3%, but he steps up big in high-leverage situations. 

In his first game against Texas Tech, Abmas scored 18 points and had five assists and four boards. It wasn’t enough to propel the Longhorns to a win, but it was a valiant effort. We trust Abmas to replicate his strong performance on Tuesday. 

Texas Tech can go cold from the field, and this is when Abmas must pour on the points. The Red Raiders' leading scorer is Pop Isaacs, who averages nearly 16 points per contest but shoots under 35%. 

Texas must go on runs and create a lead gap when he hits an inevitable cold streak on Tuesday. Even as visitors, the Longhorns can finish if they get up by a significant margin. 

Place your bets at FanDuel Sportsbook and claim $150 in bonus bets.

Texas vs. Texas Tech Betting Pick

Texas may be the worst team in the Big 12 against the spread, but we’re taking them to cover on Tuesday. The 4.5-point spread is too large for our comfort if we were to lay the points.

It will take a massive effort from the Longhorns in the backcourt. Yet, we believe they’re up to the challenge. Texas has shown the ability to respond, and we expect to see a different intensity level against their in-state rival. 

How to Watch Texas vs. Texas Tech

  • When: Tuesday, Feb. 27th @ 9:00 PM ET

  • Where: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, Texas

  • TV: ESPN

  • Streaming: ESPN+

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Tanner Kern

Sports Betting Analyst & On-Air Host

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Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.
Nationality: American
Education: M.S in Sports Journalism
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Experience:
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