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AFC Championship: Same Game Parlay

Written by: Richard Janvrin
Updated January 28, 2023
15 min read
AFC Championship SGP

In a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship, we have the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals set to battle again.

Below, we’ve created a three-leg Same Game Parlay for this game using odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds are +525

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Bengals +1.5 (-110)

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On the road in the AFC Championship for the second year in a row, playing at Arrowhead Stadium isn’t unfamiliar to the Bengals.

The Bengals and Chiefs also played earlier this season, with the Bengals winning 27-24 at home.

Heading into this one, the big headline is the ankle injury Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is dealing with. 

While he’s been practicing and he’ll play, you have to imagine that this will impact him all game long, especially if the Bengals manage to hit him nine times like they did Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen a week ago.

The Bengals showed in that game just how dominant they could be on offense and, more surprisingly, on defense. Sure, there were snowy conditions, but Bengals cornerbacks Eli Apple and Cam Taylor-Britt played well, headlined by Taylor-Britt intercepting a pass and only allowing 20 receiving yards. 

The Bengals will have a tough time containing tight end Travis Kelce. Still, their receivers—JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling aren’t quite on the level of Bills receiver Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is playing lights out, not throwing an interception over his last three games, and still throwing for 242 yards in the snowy Buffalo weather.

It looks like the Bengals are headed back to the Super Bowl—what an incredible feat.

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Pick: Travis Kelce Any Time TD (-115)

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As mentioned, the Bengals will have a tough time with Kelce. 

While Mahomes is dealing with an ankle injury, Kelce is Mahomes’ security blanket and more. He has a touchdown in four straight playoff games, including two last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars on an eye-popping 17 targets.

In this game, he’ll match up with Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson, who allows over 80% of his targets to be caught and has allowed well over 500 receiving yards this year.

With his ankle injury, look for Mahomes to look to Kelce early and often in this game and find the end zone. 

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Pick: Over 48.5 (-105)

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While we’re stressing Mahomes's ankle injury in our analysis here and, yes, it is a big deal, we have to remember that Mahomes is still an ultra-talented quarterback who will find ways to move down the field. 

No, they may not come out on top in the end, but the Chiefs did score 27 points last week against the Jaguars.

Chiefs backup quarterback Chad Henne did come in for a bit, completing five of seven passes for 23 yards and a score, but Mahomes still mustered 195 yards and two touchdowns. 

Running back Isiah Pacheco stepped up in the running game, carrying the ball just 12 times, but for 95 yards. 

The Bengals' offense should be able to score here with all of their weapons. It seems strange to say, but when it comes to predicting the over here, you have to wonder if the Chiefs can do their part. They should, especially if they can successfully run the ball with Kelce’s presence. 

We think the final score here will be around that 27-24 mark from earlier this year during the regular season, and they’ll get over this 48.5 threshold. 

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Richard Janvrin

548 Articles

After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.

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