The Cincinnati Bengals odds to make the playoffs continues to steadily decline
Joe Burrow ranks near the top of the board in Quarterback EPA per Play and PFF Grade
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks near dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate and Adjusted Line Yards
After another heartbreaking loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the Cincinnati Bengals odds to make the playoffs continues to decline. At 4-6 and three games back from first in the AFC North division standings, the Bengals are in desperate need of getting back into the win column against the Los Angeles Chargers to help keep their playoff hopes alive. While cross country travel is never ideal, the Bengals higher sense of urgency should help bypass a sluggish start and help them secure the win against the Chargers.
Look below for the moneyline, point spread, and total odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place your bets at FanDuel and receive $150 in bonus bets after placing a winning $5 wager.
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Bengals | +1.5 (-110) | +108 | Over 47.5 (-104) |
Los Angeles Chargers | -1.5 (-110) | -126 | Under 47.5 (-118) |
While the Chargers top-10 marks in Def Pass Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA seem daunting on paper, regression looms large as they face their toughest test yet with the Bengals pass attack firing on all cylinders. Especially when Joe Burrow is expected to play in a clean pocket for a majority of the contest as the Chargers front line enters the contest ranked near dead last in Pressure Rate. With a clean pocket, Offensive Player of the Year contender Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will have more time to create separation from the Chargers coverage, giving Burrow higher quality passing lanes for him to throw to.
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With the Bengals ground game expected to struggle, Joe Burrow will be tasked with a heavier workload which feeds into his passing props. Especially when getting the benefit of playing in a clean pocket, limiting the amount of variance that comes when throwing under pressure. In an attempt to match the Bengals offensive output, the Chargers will need to maximize their efficiency when in the red zone. That means a potential uptick in carries for their running backs, taking away pass attempts from Justin Herbert in the process.
With the Chargers front seven excelling at stopping the run, the Bengals best path for success may revolve around an uptick in pass attempts. Even with the Chargers secondary ranking equally as well in coverage, regression looms large as they get the unfortunate task of having to defend against the star duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. With oddsmakers believing this may be a tight contest until the end, we also potentially avoid a late run heavy game script which would eat away at Burrow’s pass attempts.
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As previously mentioned, the Chargers front seven excels at stuffing the run as they enter the contest ranked above league average in Def Rush Success Rate, EPA, and DVOA. Even when their front line ranks below league average in Def Adjusted Line Yards, the Chargers get the benefit of facing off against a Bengals offensive line who ranks equally as poor in run blocking. Factor in the Bengals running backs potentially receiving less carries and value shades towards the under on Brown’s rushing yards prop.
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While the Bengals offense is expected to call a heavy dose of the pass, the Chargers may opt into keeping the ball on the ground. Especially when inside the 20 as the Chargers will need to maximize on their trips to the red zone to help stay within the Bengals scoring pace. This helps neutralize the variance that comes with throwing into heavy coverage when in a shortened field. With each carry, the possibility of the under cashing on Herbert’s passing touchdown prop increases.
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When: Sunday, November 17thth
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Where to Watch: NBC
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WR Tee Higgins - Questionable
LT Orlando Brown Jr - Questionable
DT B.J. Hill - Questionable
DE Trey Hendrickson - Questionable
LB Logan Wilson - Questionable
RG Trey Pipkins III - Questionable
CB Kristian Fulton - Questionable
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