When looking at the entire Week 3 betting slate, nine games have totals of 45 or under when you include Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football.
So, if you’re not totally inclined to bet on the moneyline, spread, or totals line, we’d understand.
However, no matter what, each week, there are always excellent player prop bets to make, and here, we have five to cover.
Let’s not waste any more time—here we go.
Pick: Travis Kelce Any Time Touchdown (-140) at DraftKings
With the spread now at 5.5 and the total at 50.5, the Chiefs project to score plenty of points in this game, and tight end Travis Kelce will be a massive contributor to that.
Going up against the Colts, Kelce will see plenty of linebacker Zaire Franklin, who’s given up five catches this year on seven targets. This may not seem like much, but he’s only faced tight ends like O.J. Howard of the Houston Texans and Evan Engram of the Jacksonville Jaguars so far this year.
The Colts have two cornerbacks, Stephon Gilmore and Kenny Moore II, playing on two different levels right now.
Gilmore has been targeted a team-high 15 times but has only allowed 53.3% of those to be caught for 65 yards. On the other hand, Moore has 11 targets but has allowed nine catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns.
On the outside, Gilmore should be able to handle either Chiefs receive in Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Mecole Hardman.
With so much speed on this team, the Colts will be forced to keep that in mind.
All these factors at play are setting up tight end Travis Kelce was a fantastic showing. He could even find the end zone twice.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+106) at Caesars
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We just discussed the lack of coverage on Kelce and, really, for the Colts as a whole.
When looking at the total of 50.5 and the Chiefs as 5.5-point favorites, this implies they’ll score around 30 points.
The Colts have several players in the front seven that are great run defenders, including linebacker E.J. Speed. Regardless, the Chiefs are not a team that runs the ball all that much, with just 38 attempts coming from three different running backs.
So, unless you believe the Chiefs somehow get shut down in this one, Mahomes going over 2.5 passing touchdowns seems almost improbable not to happen—it’s not going to come from the running game.
Gilmore can only be one place at a time, and other than that, the Colts will struggle to contain Kelce while accounting for the speed the Chiefs possess.
Pick: Baker Mayfield Longest Pass Completion Under 33.5 Yards (-115) at Caesars
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Going up against the Browns in Week 1 and Giants in Week 2, Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield now faces his most formidable defensive challenge of the season.
No, the Saints haven’t been their usual lights-out selves, but if there were ever a game for this to show up, it would be against Mayfield.
In this game, Mayfield must contend with two massive headaches in the Saints secondary—cornerback Marshon Lattimore and safety Tyrann Mathieu.
While Mayfield hasn’t been great this season, he’s been his best when looking downfield 20+ yards.
This season, 12.3% of Mayfield’s attempts are on passes of 20+ yards downfield. He’s been great here, completing four of seven passes for 170 yards and two scores.
So, with a line of 33.5 yards, sure, Mayfield could do it, but here, we’re putting more trust in the Saints back-end coverage unit than the Browns or Giants.
The Saints pass rush should be able to get in on Mayfield and do some damage against the Panthers offensive line, especially on the edge, going up against rookie tackle Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton.
While at home, Mayfield and the Panthers could be in for a tough day.
Pick: Joe Flacco Under 0.5 Interceptions (+105) at DraftKings
One of the best surprises during this 2022 season is seeing the somewhat resurgence of long-time Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco.
Through the first two games of the season, Flacco throws a ton, averaging over 50 attempts per game.
This season, Flacco has one interception. Still, it’s debatable whether it should “count against him,” as it came on a player over the middle of the field against the Ravens in Week 1, where his receiver fell on the route.
Nonetheless, Flacco looked incredible in Week 2, throwing for 307 yards and four touchdowns, and was clean in the interception column.
Going up against the Cincinnati Bengals this week at home, they have yet to pick a pass this season.
To some, this could be the spot for the Bengals defense to get things going against Flacco. Still, Flacco hasn’t given us any reason to think he will turn into a turnover machine this week against a lackluster coverage unit.
The guy has 103 attempts on the season and has stayed out of turnover trouble for the most part.
At “+” money, we’ll bet on Flacco continuing to stay clean here.
Pick: Joe Mixon Over 19.5 Carries (-115) at BetMGM
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Sticking with the Jets and Bengals, a focal point of this offense should be running back Joe Mixon until quarterback Joe Burrow, and the passing game can get things going on the right track.
At 0-2 to start the year, Mixon is still getting plenty of action out of the backfield, averaging 23 carries a game—27 in Week 1 and 19 in Week 2.
The Jets don’t profile as a great defense, so the Bengals offense should be in a great spot to try to get things on the right track.
If the spread of -5 for the Bengals rings true, they should have command of the game, which puts Mixon in an even better position, game-script-wise, to clear this 19.5 rushing attempt total with ease.
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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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