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We have one NFL game remaining this season, and we must take advantage of it from a prop betting perspective.
On Sunday, February 12, the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers will compete in Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas.
This matchup has all of the elements to be an absolute slugfest. Both teams have incredible talent and a strong desire to win. Kansas City is the more experienced team in this position, as they have appeared in four of the last five season finales.
The 49ers were beaten 31-20 in Super Bowl 54 by the Chiefs. However, San Francisco is a much different team this season than in 2020. They’ve made massive changes in coaching personnel and added incredible playmakers.
The Chiefs have found success since the arrival of Patrick Mahomes in 2017. Mahomes somehow always finds a way to keep games extremely close. From his sidearm throws to his ability to extend plays with his legs, there isn’t much the quarterback can’t do on the field.
When Mahomes is combined with Travis Kelce, it’s a dangerous combination. Let’s break down our favorite prop bets for Super Bowl 58.
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Travis Kelce has been in the news consistently over his relationship with Taylor Swift. His relationship has elevated his play level in the playoffs.
Kelce has provided Mahomes and the Chiefs with the most explosive and productive option at the tight end position. Over the years, he and Mahomes have beaten out some of the best teams in NFL history.
In the regular season, Kelce didn’t seem to have the same drive he had in the previous seasons. Everyone knew he would get it together sooner or later, and he succeeded. The tight end we’ve seen in the postseason is an entirely different version of himself.
Statistically, Kelce had his worst season since his second year in the league in 2015. He only managed 984 yards on 93 receptions with just five touchdowns. Since the playoffs began, he’s caught 23 passes for 262 yards and three touchdowns.
We expect this volume to continue and for him to exceed his reception line of 6.5.
While we will consistently recognize Patrick Mahomes's greatness, his passing yard line is incredibly high.
In the 20 games Mahomes has played this season, he only hit this over eight times. Despite significantly lower numbers this season, Mahomes has continued to put up wins for his team.
The Chiefs are running the ball much more to take some pressure off the star quarterback. The 49ers pass defense has shown numerous flaws this season. We expect Mahomes to take advantage of these flaws when the chance arrives.
Yet, the lack of talent at the receiver position for the Chiefs is a big reason for his low numbers. The 49ers' pass rush should make it hard for Mahomes to look vertically down the field.
The 49ers managed to produce big offensive numbers this season. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk had a breakout campaign in 2023.
This season, Aiyuk finished seventh in receiving yards with 1,342. Aiyuk has been evolving every season. He surpassed his 2022 receiving total by over 300 yards.
Fellow receiver Deebo Samuel has been battling his fair share of injuries late in the season and at the start of the postseason. Samuel’s setback opens the door for Aiyuk.
Aiyuk has had seven games this year, with over 100 receiving yards. He continues to evolve in a hot offense and will see more opportunities in Super Bowl 58.
The Chiefs have a solid defensive front. With Chris Jones and George Karlaftis fighting their way through the offensive line, opposing quarterbacks are unsafe.
When the pressure gets to Purdy in the backfield, he does an excellent job of scrambling out of the pocket or dumping it off to the nearest playmaker. McCaffrey has been his consistent safety valve.
McCaffrey has played in 18 total games this season. His average receptions in that time frame was 4.33 per game. He’s always a dangerous option, and the 49ers have found ways to get him more involved.
The Chiefs have a strong defense that will force Purdy to get the ball out to McCaffrey quickly, leading to multiple receptions.
Grant Mitchell and I also share our best Super Bowl picks on our podcast - Ride the Line, powered by WSN. Take a look at the latest props-focused episode below.
|Kansas City Chiefs
|Over 47.5 (-110)
|San Francisco 49ers
|Under 47.5 (-110)
Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change. Use our FanDuel promo code to get $200 in Bonus Bets once you make your first $5 bet.
Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.More info on Tanner Kern
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