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Thursday Night Football features two teams that had massive preseason expectations. The road team is the Baltimore Ravens. They’ve been fine this season, but they’ve given up some late leads and could have a much better record than their current 4-3 record.
The home team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, has sputtered. Badly. They’re still in first place in the NFC South at 3-4, but they’re coming off two straight losses against teams they were double-digit favorites over.
They scored just three points last week against the Carolina Panthers and now have a less-than-a-week turnaround and host the Ravens.
Let’s look at single-player prop bets to make for this game.
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The Buccaneers are atrocious right now, but Brady is still throwing for plenty of yards. Looking at this line of 281.5, he’s surpassed this three times over the last four weeks. This week, he faces a Ravens secondary allowing over 261 passing yards per game.
There are plenty of holes in the Ravens’ defense, especially in the secondary. The Buccaneers have too many weapons to continue to be bogged down.
If you’ll recall, wide receiver Mike Evans had the easiest touchdown to open the game, but he dropped it. The Ravens have some great secondary players, but enough don’t match up well. Brady will continue firing away and get over this line.
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Tying into Brady’s predicted success passing the ball in this one, wide receiver Chris Godwin has been excellent since returning from injury. He had just 43 yards in Week 7, but he had 12 targets after having 11 in week 6 for 95 yards.
Godwin plays primarily out of the slot, and matching up with him will be Ravens cornerback Damarion Williams. He’s allowed a 74.1 reception percentage for over 223 yards this season and three scores.
Evans will see a lot of Marlon Humphrey. Even if Godwin plays outside, he’ll see Humphrey and Marcus Peters, who’s allowed nearly 300 yards in coverage and a 64.5 reception percentage.
Godwin is in a great spot to rack up the yards considering his target rate.
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As bad as the Buccaneers have been this season, their defense hasn’t allowed more than 21 points other than against the Kansas City Chiefs.
This season, the Buccaneers have picked the ball off six times. While the Ravens depend on the running game, they’ll need to throw at some point if we think the Buccaneers' passing attack can get something going.
Jackson is averaging 28 attempts per game and has thrown an interception in every game except Weeks 2 and 7. While he didn’t throw one in Week 7, a lot of that had to do with just 16 attempts, by far his lowest total of the season.
Getting a plus price, we’ll take a chance on Jackson throwing another here on the road against a coverage unit that ranks third-best per Pro Football Focus.
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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.
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