NFC South Odds, Predictions, Betting Picks 2024: Falcons Odds to Win the Division Continue to Grow

• The Atlanta Falcons are the current betting favorite to win the NFC South division title

• Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both suffered long term injuries in their last contest

• The New Orleans Saints are 0-2 since their quarterback Derek Carr suffered an injury

It was an underwhelming outing for the NFC South in week seven as every single team in the division lost last weekend. With their losses, the Atlanta Falcons are still in first place in the division standings at 4-3 with a tiebreaker over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who also possess the same record. The Falcons have the opportunity to solidify their tiebreaker over the Bucs next weekend as they are set to face off in Tampa this Sunday.

Speaking of Tampa, it was as horrific of an outing as it could get for the Buccaneers on Monday night as both star wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans went down with an injury. While Mike Evans is dealing with a nagging hamstring issue, Chris Godwin is out for the rest of the season after a gruesome leg injury. With their pass production poised to regress, the Bucs offense may have to revert to a heavier dose of the run to help free up coverage for their backup pass catchers.

NFC South Odds

Following odds are listed from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our code WSNSPORTS to place your bets and claim the bonus: Get Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets*

NFC South Predictions and Favorites to Win 

With the Saints and Bucs dealing with injuries, the Atlanta Falcons have the opportunity to pull away from the rest of the pack as the current division leader.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+175) at FanDuel

Not only did the Bucs lose to the Baltimore Ravens and their opportunity to reclaim the top spot in the NFC South division standings, but they also witnessed their star duo of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans go down with an injury in the process. While Mike Evans appeared to reaggravate his hamstring injury with no timetable set for his return, Chris Godwin suffered a far more gruesome leg injury and has been ruled out for the rest of the season.

With both star wide receivers set to miss some time, it’s safe to assume the Bucs offense will regress after starting the year ranked above league average in Off DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. That spells potential disaster for Tampa Bay’s season long outlook as their defense continues to struggle with limiting opposing offensive production when in the middle of the field, ranking in the bottom half of the board in Def Pass and Rush Success Rate.

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New Orleans Saints (+1800) at BetMGM

Speaking of injuries, the New Orleans Saints have been on a freefall since losing their quarterback Derek Carr to injury, going 0-2 in his absence with no timetable for his return reported as of writing. Backup rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler has failed to replicate Carr’s MVP level of production, crashing the Saints passing metrics to well below league average in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

To make matters worse for the Saints, their defense has failed to give them the support they need to help keep the contest tight enough for their anemic offense to compete in. Especially in their efforts of stopping the run as their front seven ranks near dead last across the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. Until we get more clarity on when Derek Carr will make his return, then pass on the Saints current inflated odds to win the NFC South division title.

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Carolina Panthers (+17500) at Caesars

After their win over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Carolina Panthers have fallen hard back down to reality as they have gone 0-4 since then. Andy Dalton has struggled to recapture the success they had on offense in his first start, entering week eight ranked near dead last in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Their ground game has managed to perform far better than their pass attack, yet it has not been nearly enough to remain competitive.

Especially when their defensive production has been practically non-existent as the Panthers defense ranks well below league average across the board in Def DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, Adjusted Line Yards, Adjusted Sack Rate, and Pressure Rate. A stunningly bad level of play or a unit that was quietly competitive last year. Even at astronomically high odds this early in the season, pass on the Panthers to win the NFC South as they do not generate nearly enough production to compete for the division title.

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Who Will Win the NFC South - My Pick 

Atlanta Falcons (-165) at BetMGM

With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints decimated by injuries, the Atlanta Falcons have the opportunity to build up their lead at the top of the division standings. Their offense has arguably been the best unit in the division since the acquisition of star quarterback Kirk Cousins in the offseason, leading the Falcons to top-15 marks in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate while surrounded by one of the best group of skill players in the league.

Should the Falcons want to run away with the division title, let alone contend for the Super Bowl, then their defense will need to drastically elevate their level of play as they continue to struggle seven weeks into the season. Heading into week eight, the Falcons rank well below league average in Def Pass and Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Sack Rate. While their lack of defensive production is alarming, the Falcons are still the clear cut favorite to win the division title due to their high powered offense.

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NFC South History

When one team stands above the rest, they normally have a hold on the division for a few years. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now won the NFC South three years in a row while the New Orleans Saints held the title for four years before them. The Carolina Panthers also had a turn at the top of the NFC South, dominating the division from 2013-2015. 

With the Falcons projected as the favorite to win it this year, they are potentially next in line to start a dynasty. Especially with the rest of the NFC South regressing on paper. The Falcons have not won the division since 2016 and are in last place in the NFC South for the most division titles while the Saints lead the division with seven NFC South titles.

Past NFC South Winners

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the NFC South

Having access to multiple online sportsbooks allows you to line shop as odds can drastically vary between each sports book. The Falcons odds to win the NFC South for example can be found as low as -165 at BetMGM and as high as -180 at FanDuel. That is a difference of $15 in a tied up wager $100 bettor while returning the same amount of profit.

Another reason to grab as many sportsbooks as you can get is because each book also has their own unique signup bonus to help boost your bankroll ahead of the NFL season. FanDuel Sportsbook for example is giving new users $300 in bonus bets after creating an account and winning their first bet of at least $5.

We dive into much more detail in our guide on the Best NFL Betting Sites available today.

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How to Read NFC South Winner Odds

Before making any type of wager, it’s critical to know how the listed odds work. Should you have made a wager on the Falcons to win the NFC South in the preseason at -130, that means you would have needed to wager $130 to profit $100. If you like one of the longer shots like the New Orleans Saints at +1800, then a $100 wager would profit you $1,800 should they win the division.