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The NFL’s Week 13 regular season schedule kicks off with an exciting AFC East battle on Thursday Night Football (got Amazon Prime Time yet?) featuring the 8-3 Buffalo Bills who could definitely use a divisional win (0-2) and the 6-5 New England Patriots who desperately need as many more wins as they can manage, a potential early December weather game in Foxboro.
The Buffalo Bills have not covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games as road favorites and it’s no wonder with QB Josh Allen continuing to throw INTs (he leads the league with 11 and has thrown 7 in the last 5 games), with takeaways something the Patriots excel at now their D with 12 total INTS (tied for 3rd most in the league) and 6 fumble recoveries with one for a touchdown.
The Bills have enough offensive weapons (QB Josh Allen, WRs Stephon Diggs, Gabe Davis, RB Devin Singletary) to beat any NFL team but their 12th-ranked defense has allowed opponents to keep it close so look for Patriots HC Bill Belichick to figure out which parts of that defense to exploit, this game perhaps his Pats’ last chance to stay on course for the postseason.
At first glance, the oddsmaker’s points total prediction for this AFC East matchup (44.5 points) seems low considering this is the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots who are playing here, with two more than competent offense that tend to score often, with the Bills generating 28.1 points per game and the Patriots 21.7, that total of 49.8 well over what this bet allows.
But consider this – each of Buffalo’s last six road games have gone under the total points line which seems to indicate they score less away from home, plus these defenses are stingy – Buffalo’s D allows 18.1 points per game while New England’s allows opponents to score 18.4 points per game, that 36.5 total well under what the oddsmakers expect, which is the bet we like
The under makes sense here, especially when you consider this game will be played outdoors in Massachusetts in December, which means that even if there is no snow coming down, the East coast cold could make it tough to get a good passing game for either team rolling, yet another reason to go with the under here, with the divisional stakes so high this will be fun.
The fate of the AFC East could be affected by the outcome of this game – should the Bills win they put divisional pressure on the Miami Dolphins and should the Patriots win they greatly help their Wildcard chances since they are currently on the bubble, so this money line bet gets interesting here since it costs more to bet on the favorited Bills than on the underdog Pats.
Bills fans already know that their team thrives in the national spotlight and has won each of their last four Thursday Night Football games, so anyone who thinks that trend will continue can place a $240 money line bet on the Bills and win $100 if the do come out on top, whereas true Patriots fans who place a $100 money line bet on New England will win $190 plus their wager if the Patriots prevail.
One final bit of research we always suggest you do before you place any bets is to check on the injuries each team is dealing with since some key playmakers might be forced to sit out – in Week 13 the Bills have eight players out and eight listed as questionable while New England has 10 players on IR and four coach’s game time decisions including RB Damien Harris (thigh).
Mike Lukas is a retired standup comedian turned freelance writer now living in Dallas, Texas, originally from Cleveland, Ohio. His love for the game of football and all things Cleveland Browns turned Mike into a pro blogger years ago. Now Mike enjoys writing about all thirty-two NFL teams, hoping to help football gamblers gain a slight edge in their pursuit of the perfect wager. Email: [email protected]More info on Mike Lukas
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