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We had several perfect picks in Week 4, including the right stack with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. But too many misses left us just a few points out of a profitable DFS day.
The good news is that this was the best lineup thus far, with a strong 146.4 fantasy points landing the roster inside the top 26%. Here’s to building on that promising push in Week 5!
This weekly column will provide you with the information you need before choosing a lineup in DFS. Prices are sourced from DraftKings in accordance with the tournament.
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The Rams/Eagles game has the second-highest over/under of the week at 49.5, a recipe for a high-scoring game led by quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Matthew Stafford. So instead of paying the piper for Hurts, let’s take a note from our DFS Values article and pick Stafford.
The Rams return superstar Cooper Kupp, but that’s only half of the equation. Check out the DFS Values article linked above!
The transition from Tyler Allgeier to Bijan Robinson has happened. After starting strong over the first two weeks, Allgeier has seen his snaps plummet from 56% in Week 1 to 26% in Week 4, his lowest mark of the season.
That’s resulted in a steady rise in snaps and touches for Robinson, who looks as good as advertised. Now he gets a beautiful matchup against Houston, which ranks 25th in fantasy against running backs. Robinson’s importance to head coach Arthur Smith’s offensive scheme is painfully obvious, thanks to the inabilities of quarterback Desmond Ridder.
Last week, I called for Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs’ first huge blow-up of the season. Now it’s Robinson’s turn to shine in a similar way, making him a perfect play in DFS.
The Bengals look like a defeated team, something James Conner is probably all too familiar seeing. That should only help Conner take advantage of a defense allowing the second-most rushing yards in the NFL.
Conner was a favorite of mine in the DFS Values article, which you can read using the link above!
The fifth-round rookie has been a successful mainstay of this column, and Kupp’s potential return won’t upset that process one bit.
Nacua has taken well over 60% of his snaps outside and is not a slot-only receiver like some think he is. There is plenty of room for Kupp and Nacua to thrive on an offense averaging over 41 attempts a game, the most in the NFL.
Talent doesn’t go away when more talent is added. It gets compounded into something even more special. Play Nacua with confidence against an Eagles’ team that allows the fifth-most points to wide receivers.
The former Viking is an obvious play this week, despite a tougher matchup on paper against Detroit. Check out our DFS Values article for more on why Thielen should be in most DFS lineups for Week 5.
Here’s the sleeper play of the week, mentioned in the DFS Stacks article. Robinson has managed good separation on his few routes this season, albeit close to the line of scrimmage, and has seen 11 targets on just 39 routes run.
Robinson saw his snaps jump from 22% to 61% from Week 3 to Week 4. He should continue to see his snaps increase with each week after his ACL injury. His route rate also increased as a result, from 25.7% to 66.7% in the subsequent weeks.
He should see a healthy workload against a Dolphins’ defense that allows the 10th-most points to wide receivers. With the injuries to New York’s offensive line and a need to get the ball out quickly, Robinson is the obvious target for a heavy PPR day.
The Vikings tight end hasn’t graced too many of my DFS lineups, but there’s no denying his opportunity in a locked-in shootout with Kansas City.
Hockenson has the most targets (31) of any tight end this season and a strong six red-zone targets, third-most at his position. He has put up steady numbers this season and has blow-up potential against a Chiefs’ defense that ranks 24th against the tight end for fantasy.
Don’t shy away from Hockenson because of the lofty price. He’ll be worth every penny in this plus matchup at home.
Head coach Robert Saleh said Breece Hall will no longer be on a “pitch count.”
If this is true, Hall should be in every DraftKings lineup, regardless of ownership projections. He will obliterate this Denver defense, allowing a ridiculous 176 rushing yards a game, by far the most in the NFL. Hall has RB1 overall upside akin to what De’Von Achane put together in Week 3. Or, at worst, a RB1 finish akin to Khalil Herbert last week despite three weeks of ineffectiveness prior.
Hall has routinely shown signs of the greatness he flashed as a rookie, averaging the second-most yards per touch in 2023. If Hall can return to receiving 15+ touches in this game at a cheap $5,400 cost, there’s no way Hall doesn’t dominate this week.
It feels wrong to skimp on defense this week, but here we are regardless. I wrote in the DFS Sleeper column how Ryan Tannehill could surprise people this week, but if the Titans’ passing attack can’t defeat the Colts secondary, it could be a long day for the Nashville franchise.
The Colts have tallied two sacks or more in every game this season, sitting tied with Dallas for the third-most sacks this season. That pass-rush now gets to take on a Titans’ offensive line that has been brutalized all year. Tennessee has allowed 16 sacks this season, with only the Commanders, Giants, and Bears allowing more sacks.
Perhaps Derrick Henry is starting to pick it up. He looked good in Week 4 after a slow start and has a long history of getting better as the season goes on. But if he doesn’t, Tannehill could spend a large part of the day on his back as the Colts defense gets home.
Leftover budget: $0
Michael Sicoli has been writing about fantasy football and betting within the NFL space since 2020. He works as a writer and content creator with ClubFantasyFFL and runs an NFL defensive (IDP) newsletter with The IDP Guys. A graduate from Quinnipiac University, Michael is a long-time NFL fan with a love for soccer and the NBA.More info on Michael Sicoli
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