Falcons vs. Buccaneers TNF Picks, Predictions & Player Props: Bucs, Baker to Stay Hot in ATL?

• ATL and TB went 1-1 against each other in 2023

• Baker Mayfield threw the second-most touchdown passes this year

• The Falcons won on a time-expiring field goal last week

The Atlanta Falcons will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an NFC South divisional showdown on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 5.

Both teams enter off the back of wins against NFC opponents and after they split their season series 1-1 a year ago.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds 

The following odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place your bets on the Falcons vs Buccaneers matchup at FanDuel and get $200 in bonus bets.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Predictions 

Tampa Bay can put points on the board. They just put up 33 against the Philadelphia Eagles and rank 11th for the year at 24.3 points per game largely thanks to the excellence of Baker Mayfield. Rookie running back Bucky Irving also handled a larger role well last week, running 10 times for 49 yards and a touchdown.

Tampa’s run defense has been uncharacteristically poor, though that isn’t likely to stick forever. The biggest concern is their personnel in the secondary due to the loss of Carlton Davis III during the offseason, but Todd Bowles’ defensive prowess and aggression have helped them climb to 13th in dropback EPA per play.

The Falcons are tougher to evaluate. They’re 2-2 and rank 10th in offensive and seventh in defensive yards per play, yet they’re 20th in average scoring margin and haven’t won by more than two points.

Kirk Cousins looks much more comfortable as time goes on and he gets more reps post-Achilles surgery, though he was far from a difference-maker last week and has a long history of underperforming in primetime. 

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Pick

• My Pick: Buccaneers Spread at +1.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Baker Mayfield is playing at one of the highest levels of any quarterback in the league, and the Bucs have already beaten quality opponents such as the Eagles and the Detroit Lions.

The Falcons have not stood out on either side of the football, and they still aren’t even close to getting the most out of their best weapons.

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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Best Player Props

Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+145 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Todd Bowles stuck to his word and gave Irving more touches last week, which led to him scoring the first touchdown of his pro career.

The 22-year-old is tough-nosed around the goal line and has the speed to break big plays. He got at least seven carries in every game and a career-high 10 last week and now faces a defense that is just 24th in rush EPA per play.

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Kirk Cousins Under 228.5 Passing Yards (-113 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Cousins went over this line in three straight games, though he’s yet to eclipse 241 yards. 

The Bucs rank sixth in yards allowed per pass attempt and hold teams to 203.8 passing yards per game. The trend of primetime games going under their projected totals also generally leads to more unders on player props. 

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Tyler Allgeier Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-113 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Allgeier, a 1,000-yard rusher as a rookie in 2022, received a team-high eight carries in last week’s 26-24 win against the New Orleans Saints, while Bijan Robinson only got seven for 28 yards.

Robinson is still the lead back, but he had a shoulder injury last week and is currently on the injury report with a hamstring issue. Allgeier averaged 6.1 yards per carry and gets to face a defense that is 29th in rushing yards allowed per attempt (5.0).

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Falcons vs. Buccaneers How to Watch

• When: Thursday, October 3 at 8:15 p.m. ET 

• Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

• Where to Watch: Prime Video

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Best Promos and Sportsbooks

All of the best NFL betting sites have the spread set at Falcons -1.5 with -110 odds on both sides at the time of writing. 

Anyone who bets on the Falcons vs. Buccaneers Thursday Night Football showdown at FanDuel Sportsbook will receive $200 in bonus bets as soon as they place their first worth at least $5 (note: this deal is only available for first-time customers). More info about the FanDuel TNF Promo Code for Falcons vs Buccaneers can be found here.

We have listed some of our favorite NFL promos and bonuses in the table below.

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Injuries

Falcons Injuries

• Ray-Ray McCloud III (WR) - Questionable (ankle)

• Bijan Robinson (RB) - Questionable (hamstring)

• Troy Andersen (LB) - Questionable

• Kaleb McGary (OT) - Questionable

• Rondale Moore (WR) - OUT (Knee)

Buccaneers Injuries

• Antoine Winfield Jr. (S) - Questionable (foot)

• Trey Palmer (WR) - Questionable (concussion)

• Mike Evans (WR) - Questionable (knee/calf)

• Vita Vea (DT) - Questionable (knee)

• Tristan Wirfs (OT) - Questionable

• Calijah Kancey (DT) - Questionable (calf)

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