Lions vs. Commanders Picks, Predictions & Player Props: Massive Shootout Incoming

• Lions running back David Montgomery will play after missing the last three games with a knee injury. 

• The Commanders allow just 189.5 passing yards per game but give up over 137 rushing yards per outing. 

• The Lions are the No. 1 seed in the NFC and had a wild-card round bye. 

The No. 1 Detroit Lions will host the No. 6 Washington Commanders in the divisional-round of the NFL playoffs. These teams haven’t played this season. The Commanders enter this matchup after beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round, while the Lions had a bye week. 

Below are the odds for this game, my pick, predictions, and best player props. 

Lions vs. Commanders Odds 

Look below for the moneyline, point spread, and total odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. By using our promo code WSNDYW you can Double Your Winnings on Your Next 10 Bets after betting $1. 

Lions vs. Commanders: My Pick

• My Pick: Commanders Spread at +9.5 (-110) at Caesars

While I think the Lions win this game, it’s hard to bet against Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels right now, especially against a weak Lions pass defense. 

The Lions have a fantastic offensive line and offense, so again, they’ll win, but the Commanders and Daniels will be able to pass with enough success to keep this within nine points. 

The Lions win this game 31-24.

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Lions vs. Commanders Predictions 

While the Commanders are the No. 6 seed, do not sleep on this team or this offense. 

In fact, the Lions and Commanders are both inside the top seven in total yards per game, with the Lions at 409.5 and the Commanders at 369.5. 

When examining this matchup, at least looking strictly at the statistics, this is a similar matchup for the Commanders offense as they had last week against the Buccaneers' defense. 

Like the Buccaneers, the Lions have an excellent run defense but allow a plethora of passing yards per outing. 

They allow 98.4 rushing yards (fifth) and 244 passing yards (30th) per game. 

This game might be on the road for the Commanders, but it’s indoors, and there are no elements to be weary of. 

As you may already know, the Lions have an obscene number of injuries on defense, and that situation is not improving this week. 

Commanders tight end Zach Ertz will be a top target, but wide receiver Terry McLaurin has the advantage against both Lions cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson. 

As for the Commanders' defense, they’re stout against the pass, but allow a lot of production on the ground. 

Washington gives up just 189.5 passing yards (fifth) while also giving up 137.5 rushing yards (30th) per game. 

Shoot, they held Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield to only 185 passing yards. 

However, the Lions offense is far too robust. The passing game has numerous options, and the ground game has two backs that work exceedingly well together. 

David Montgomery will be back alongside Jahmyr Gibbs. 

The Lions also have an advantage when examining the wide receiver and cornerback matchups. 

I worry about Marshon Lattimore against Jameson Williams, and I’m terrified for the Commanders with Noah Igbinoghene in coverage against Amon-Ra St. Brown. 

We also have to consider the Lions' offensive line against the Commanders' pass rush. 

The Commanders have plenty of talent along the defensive line, but the Lions offensive line is arguably the best in the league, contending with the Philadelphia Eagles. The only weak point is Graham Glasgow. 

Expect a backdoor cover in this game. The Lions will lead throughout while Daniels passes his way into the Commanders' covering. 

Lions vs. Commanders Best Player Props

Jameson Williams Anytime TD (+110 at Caesars Sportsbook)

In years past, if you were a receiver covered by Lattimore, your day was over and done before it even began. 

However, Lattimore is getting a bit older, and he’s often injured this season. 

As a result, he’s played just 91 snaps in coverage for Washington and has already allowed 11 receptions on 17 targets for 152 yards and two touchdowns. 

He allowed a touchdown in Week 16 and also in the wild-card round. 

Now, he’ll take on a big-play receiver in Williams. Of his targets, 15.9% of them have been on plays 20-plus yards downfield. He’s caught five passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns on passes of this length. 

On passes of 10-19 yards, he’s caught 19 of 32 yards for 430 yards and three scores. 

Getting the +110 value, this is more than worth a shot. 

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David Montgomery Anytime TD (-200 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Montgomery hasn’t played since Week 15 due to a knee injury, but he’ll suit up this week. 

He’ll take on a Commanders defense that’s 30th in the league against the run, allowing over 137 yards per game. 

Through 14 games, Montgomery scored 12 times. One of those games includes Week 15, when he got hurt and had just five carries. 

The Commanders didn’t allow a rushing touchdown to a running back in the wild-card round, but before that, they allowed five over the previous three games. 

What better way to get Montgomery reintegrated into the offense than to get him into the end zone? 

Bank on it. 

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Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 Receptions (-133 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Coming out of the slot, St. Brown gobbles up targets and catches, and in this game, he has a fantastic matchup. 

While the Commanders allow only about 189 passing yards per game, he’ll take on Igbinoghene, who’s allowed 45 receptions on 74 targets (60.8%) for 419 yards and three scores. 

He’s allowed three catches or more in 10 games and has been targeted five times or more in eight games. 

St. Brown has had seven receptions or more in seven games. 

So, while Igbinoghene hasn’t allowed seven catches in many games, he’s targeted often and allows a lot of catches, and St. Brown is arguably the best receiver he’s played against this season. 

Look for St. Brown to exceed this line by the start of the fourth quarter. 

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Lions vs. Commanders: How to Watch

• When: Saturday, Jan. 18 at 8:00 PM ET

• Where: Ford Field in Detroit, MI

• Where to Watch: FOX

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Lions vs. Commanders Injuries

Below are players that were designated as “did not practice” on Tuesday, Jan. 14. 

There’s been no official injury report released by the Commanders yet. That said, defensive tackle Daron Payne left their wild-card matchup early with a finger injury. 

• Lions defensive lineman Pat O’Connor is questionable with a calf injury. 

• Lions cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr. is questionable with a hamstring injury. 

• Lions guard Kevin Zeitler is questionable with a hamstring injury.